The Minnesota Vikings started the season by throttling the New York Giants, 28-6, marking the first time since 2019 that they have won by three or more scores. A week later, they beat the San Francisco 49ers, 23-17, making it the second consecutive season that the Vikings have topped the reigning NFC champions.
The Vikings will earn national recognition if they beat the Houston Texans this week. However, fans who have watched this team for the last three years know they’ve been on an upward trend since Kevin O’Connell took over in 2022. Minnesota’s win total dipped from 13 in 2022 to seven last year. Still, their improvement goes deeper than wins and losses. Luck often factors into a team’s success; crucial players get hurt, and an oblong ball determines the fate of many plays.
Minnesota finished with 13 wins in O’Connell’s first season. It was a year to remember, including thrilling comeback victories against the Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts. However, the 9-8 Giants eliminated the Vikings, 31-24, in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Fans wondered how a 13-4 team couldn’t get out of the first week of the postseason.
The Vikings opened the 2022 season with a 23-7 victory over the Green Bay Packers and ended the regular season by beating the Chicago Bears, 29-13. However, the Vikings had 11 one-score victories between those two games. They outscored opponents 374-288 throughout 2022, a plus-6.6 per game average.
Those close games were fun, albeit stressful, for die-hard fans. But a win’s a win, right? Unfortunately, the losses were far less thrilling. In their four regular-season losses, Minnesota’s opponents outscored them 139-50, an average margin of minus- 22.3 per game average. Three of these losses were to playoff teams. The fourth was to the Packers, who were one win away from qualifying for the postseason. Ultimately, the 13-4 Vikings had a minus-four point differential.
We can measure efficiency by a team’s average yards per play and the average yards they give up per play. The 2022 Vikings averaged 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowed 5.9 yards per play on defense, a minus-0.4 yards-per-play differential. For comparison’s sake, the 2022 Philadelphia Eagles, who also finished 13-4, averaged 5.9 yards per play and allowed 4.8, a plus-1.1 per play advantage.
While the Vikings caught every break in 2022, misfortunate struck in 2023. Turnovers dug them into an 0-3 hole. Then Kirk Cousins suffered an Achilles tear after they clawed back to a 4-4 record in late October. Minnesota started Jaren Hall, Joshua Dobbs, and Nick Mullens at quarterback, scrambling to acclimate each signal-caller to a playmaker-filled offense. Despite their best efforts, the Vikings finished 7-10.
Still, Minnesota’s underlying metrics indicate they improved in some categories. The Vikings left themselves with little margin throughout the season. They won six of their seven games by one score, and their average margin of victory was a plus-6.7 points per game, similar to 2022.
However, Minnesota’s losses were much tighter last year, even though they played a first-place schedule. The Vikings lost by 65 points in their ten losses (a minus-6.5 average). Although they turned the ball over nine times in the season’s first three games, they only lost those games by a total of 13 points.
The Vikings were more efficient as a team than in 2022, though. Even after losing Cousins for half the season and Justin Jefferson missing six games due to injury, Minnesota’s offense averaged 5.5 yards per play again. However, their defense improved significantly, holding teams to 5.2 yards per play. That gave them a plus-0.3 per-play average, considerably improving over their minus-0.4 average in 2022. For context, the NFC champion 49ers averaged 6.6 yards per play and yielded five yards, a plus-1.6 per play average.
That brings us to Minnesota’s 2-0 start to begin the 2024 season. It’s a small sample size, but we are already seeing trends we haven’t seen since O’Connell took over in 2022. In their three-score victory over the Giants, the Vikings were about to take a 27-7 lead at the end of the third quarter when Aaron Jones fumbled at the goal line. Turnovers are a part of the game, but Minnesota was this close to routing the defending NFC champions.
Minnesota has only played two games, so those numbers will change. But right now, the Vikings are averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense. Defensively, they give up 4.7 yards per play, a plus-2.1 average.
The Vikings may improve upon those numbers throughout the season because they have established continuity. The offense is in its third year of running O’Connell’s system. Brian Flores is in his second year running things on defense. With improved personnel, you can see that unit coming together. How much regression will Minnesota experience on both sides of the ball? Only time will tell. Still, it’s hard to envision things dropping off completely under two brilliant football minds.
They have the Texans coming up, followed by a trip to Lambeau Field and then to London to face off the New York Jets. By the time their Week 6 bye comes around, the Vikings will have played the league’s best teams, its worst, and everything in between. If the Vikings can comfortably beat their inferior opponents while competing with the league’s best teams, they will continue to ascend as the season progresses — and for years to come.
