It’ll be interesting to see how head coach and offensive play caller Kevin O’Connell structures the offense this season. After signing Robert Tonyan, the tight end room is deep with talent. Even with T.J. Hockenson sidelined by an injury for the beginning of the season, Josh Oliver, Johnny Mundt, and Tonyan make up a solid group. Therefore, it’s only natural to wonder how much 12-personnel (one RB, two TE) we’ll see this season and how vital WR3 will really be.
In his first two seasons at the helm of the offense, O’Connell’s Vikings lived in 11-personnel (one RB, one TE). K.J. Osborn held down the WR3 spot last season and was adequate in the role, but he didn’t provide much juice. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison proved to be a high-end duo last season and will significantly help the quarterback, regardless of whether it’s Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy. But what if Minnesota went all in to surround their field general(s) with weapons on the outside?
Courtland Sutton is entering his age-29 season for the Denver Broncos and is a high-quality receiver who would provide the offense with a unique body type. At 6’3″, 220 lbs., Sutton is a big target with speed and a versatile skillset. His big frame is ideal for a blocker and in contested catch situations.
After considering a holdout for contract reasons this summer, Sutton agreed to a restructured deal that is still mostly unguaranteed, hoping to settle on a long-term extension with Denver eventually. Despite Sutton’s public posturing about the situation, he may not fit into Denver’s future plans. Their rebuild is in full swing, and they have some promising young receivers who need more opportunities. Although the Vikings may not throw the ball as frequently in 2024 as last season, the offense is still likely to be more pass-driven than the Broncos’.
Sutton’s production was a bit muted in 2023 by a Denver offense that ranked 24th in pass rate, but he still finished the season with 59 catches for over 700 yards and 10 touchdowns. His 16.9% touchdown rate was the best in the league for pass catchers with over 40 receptions.
Justin Jefferson is the ultimate contested-catch winner among elite receivers and is extremely valuable as an X receiver. Still, Sutton could spell him a bit there and eat up some press snaps while Jefferson or Addison gets a free release from the slot. Sutton is also a great deep threat who would fit well into an offense that loves to push the ball downfield.
Jefferson is so great against man-to-man on the boundary that it’s worth throwing it up to him outside every time the defense lines up with one high safety. However, those opportunities have been fewer and further between, and some defenses have had success doubling him. Even after adding Jordan Addison last season, no receiver saw double teams more often than Jefferson, who was doubled in nearly a third of the routes he ran.
Another legitimate threat like Sutton could help draw some defensive attention to the opposite boundary, or he could serve as a big slot receiver. Sutton also has the physicality to contribute to the run game as a blocker out of the slot and allows the group to run more consistently out of 11-personnel. Sutton is signed through 2025 in Denver but with little money guaranteed. In a hypothetical trade this season, Minnesota would absorb his $13 million salary, and the Broncos would save as much as possible while pivoting off a receiver at the tail end of his prime. Sounds like a win-win to me, but how much would Minnesota realistically have to give up?
A 2025 fifth-round pick might suffice.
Minnesota doesn’t have much left in the war chest after a flurry of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah trades over the last two seasons. Still, I think he’d be willing to give up another Day 3 pick if it means improving the team immediately. Amari Cooper went for a fifth-round pick in 2022, so I don’t think the price is unreasonable, especially if Denver shows their hand during negotiations.
The Vikings have $17.2 million in available cap space, so this would take up a large chunk of that — but we’ve seen Rob Byrzienski and the front office make it work in the past.
