It’s the thick of summer, which means two things for many Americans: blockbuster movies in the theaters and MLB trade speculation. Whether they’re eagerly waiting for Marvel’s newest draw on the silver screen or for their chosen team to make a deal for a star, the clock appears to be ticking louder and louder with each passing minute.
The Minnesota Twins don’t have many gaping holes on their roster as they try to weigh possible additions. You could make the argument for another medium- to high-leverage bullpen option or a truly bonafide playoff-caliber starting pitcher. Still, the club is in a pretty good spot at the moment so long as their group remains relatively healthy (an admittedly risky gamble).
In reality, the best move the Twins can make as they try to bolster their chances of a prolonged run to and through the postseason would be to get their current ace back on track. Pablo López was an absolute force for most of last season, especially in the second half, and two brilliant playoff starts. But his 2024 campaign has been a disappointment when you look at the full body of work. He has dominated in a few outings, which tells us that the stuff is theoretically still there for the 28-year-old. However, fans, the team, and even López have been waiting for him to finally turn the corner, just as he did early last season.
On June 1st last year, López had a 4.58 ERA and strong peripheral numbers, such as a 10.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. But from that point on, he found a rhythm that led to more success, which was reflected in his counting stats. In the 20 starts that followed, he had a sterling 3.15 ERA with similarly great peripherals and a home run rate that hovered much closer to the league average.
So when the Twins earned a postseason berth, he wasn’t just the best pitcher on the staff but a better option than any realistic trade candidate in this year’s market.
That’s the arm that the Twins need, and it’s the only reasonable high-caliber addition I see them making over the next two weeks.
Would someone like Jack Flaherty (3.13 ERA across 16 starts this year) be a welcome addition atop Minnesota’s rotation? Or Tarik Skubal (2.41 ERA, 19 starts)?
Sure, but they would almost certainly cost at least one of Minnesota’s top three prospects or a young MLB player who has already established themselves as a critical cog in the club’s long-term plans. That could mean parting ways with young stars such as Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, or Zebby Matthews, who have been getting buzz as global Top-100 prospects. They would probably just be the get-in price of a potential negotiation.
The better bet is to get the team’s pitching cornerstone, López, to a place where his results match his solid peripherals.
To get their ace back to that point, the club needs to figure out how to get López to keep the ball out of the stands. He’s allowed 18 home runs in the season’s first half, fourth-most in baseball, and he’s on pace to surpass his 2023 total by the time the calendar flips to August.
However, there’s a sense that these haven’t come directly from a dip in stuff. López’s pitches still have most of the same tendencies as they did a year ago. Instead, it’s a matter of execution. Out of those 18 long balls, seven have come on the first pitch of the at-bat. Either López has become far too predictable with his pitch sequencing, or opponents have something on him. Either way, the development is unsustainable if he’s going to get back on track.
So if the Twins will find a way to continue gaining steam as they make another big push to a postseason berth and beyond, they’ll want to do it sustainably. And as reinvigorating as it would feel to land a new marquee name atop their starting five, the reality is that the smarter play would be to get their current ace back to the dominant force that shut down the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros last October.
Otherwise, fans could be sitting through a lifetime of previews while they wait for that big summer blockbuster.
