The Minnesota Twins were lucky to see two traditional starters transition to the bullpen in September last year, with mostly encouraging results as they pushed into the playoffs. Louie Varland and Chris Paddack boosted their raw stuff from shorter outings, and it came at a time when the club almost always could use a high-leverage reliever or two.
That’s where they find themselves again this year. The softer part of Minnesota’s bullpen has regressed during the final months of the regular season. Jorge Alcala had one of the worst outings of the season when he coughed up a four-run lead in a matter of minutes on Sunday in Texas. On Tuesday night, that performance was followed by a drubbing of lefty Steven Okert in San Diego.
Given Minnesota’s bullpen issues, many fans are begging to see the Twins put Varland and Paddack in the bullpen again. It feels inevitable that they will move Varland into a relief role at this point, even though they’ve kept him stretched out as a starter to maintain rotation depth. But soon, his contributions in the bullpen will become significantly more valuable than his theoretical impact as a starter if one of their current rotation arms gets injured.
However, Paddack is in a different place than he was a year ago. In 2023, he showed flashes of dominance thanks to having a fresh arm from a prolonged recovery from Tommy John surgery the year before. While his entrance into the relief corps was a pleasant surprise, the Twins didn’t expect him to be a high-leverage option. And lastly, opposing batters hadn’t seen how Paddack’s stuff would play in-game post-surgery.
But this year? Paddack’s arm can hardly be qualified as fresh, even though he hasn’t pitched in nearly six weeks. Considering Minnesota’s over-usage of high-caliber options like Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, and Alcala, he’d have to pitch a lot if he returned to the bullpen. And, of course, there is far more data that can demonstrate what opponents could expect this time around.
That’s why counting on Paddack as a bullpen contributor down the stretch is unrealistic this year. Not only am I doubtful that his arm will be healthy enough to return, but I’m worried about how his stuff would play if they even attempted to make it happen.
Minnesota’s bullpen is far from a perfect group this year. It’s fair to be concerned about it, especially the lower-leverage options. However, throwing a question mark after another question mark only exacerbates the underlying issue. Fire doesn’t put out fire. Two rights don’t make a left.
We’ve seen mixed results from Paddack as a starter this year, and not the kind of pitching he can automatically elevate if the Twins give him opportunities for shorter outings. It’s one thing to look at someone like Varland and declare him a reasonable relief candidate based on his numbers against opponents the first time through the batting order. In those instances, he has a 2.70 ERA and has allowed a .667 OPS to his opponents. Pair that with his small sample size as a reliever last season, where he had a sterling 1.50 ERA with 12.8 K/9 in 12 innings pitched, and it’s easy to see the logic of moving the St. Paul native back to the bullpen eventually.
But Paddack’s numbers in those same circumstances leave much to be desired. In 35 innings pitched while going through a lineup for the first time this year, he has a 4.93 ERA while allowing a .759 OPS to his opponents. Is that a nightmare? Hardly. Still, it’s not the kind of encouraging reflection that makes him a slam-dunk candidate to improve the bullpen picture. The uncertainty surrounding his health and stamina makes the outlook even murkier.
Instead, the Twins would be wise to make Varland their primary addition to the relief corps in September and hopefully into the postseason. If they need further reinforcements from their starting depth, perhaps one of their impressive rookies — Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews — could be an interesting path to explore. Each has either surpassed or is quickly approaching the line of reasonable innings limits based on their given development, and the need for back-end starters will decrease as the season goes on and playoff baseball becomes a reality.
