The Minnesota Twins’ five-week freefall continues. On Aug. 18, the Twins were ready to sweep the Texas Rangers in a four-game road series. According to FanGraphs, Minnesota had a 70-53 record and a 92.4 percent chance to reach the postseason. The team had a 94 percent win probability in the 7th inning until Jorge Alcala and the Twins bullpen gave up the lead and lost 5-4. That loss kickstarted an 11-23 record since August 18.
Not only have the Twins been one of the worst teams in baseball during that span, but they are currently out of a playoff spot. FanGraphs gives them a 51.4 percent chance to reach the playoffs. With six games to go in the regular season entering Tuesday, that’s less than the odds of the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, who sit in the final two playoff spots.
The Twins vacated a playoff spot they had held since May 16. It’s tough to find a better description of Minnesota’s struggles than “meltdown” or “total system failure.” Hitting, pitching, defense, and baserunning collapsed worse than the 2022 season when the team folded down the stretch.
Watching Twins games in early August is a much different viewing experience than it has been over the last five weeks. It’s a team that lacks the identity that got them there. Team identity can be a bit of a cliche. Still, winning teams must build around something to succeed and as a crutch to lean on when a team wants to get right.
The Twins were one of the best teams in baseball before August 18, with a 70-52 record that was just 3 games back from the league’s best record. They were on a 92-win pace thanks to a lineup that scored the sixth-most runs in the league up to that point. They were a team that had forged an identity of a lineup that had thump and came through in late-inning situations.
Minnesota had a .429 team slugging percentage (sixth best), a 113 wRC+ (fourth best), and hitting 152 home runs (eighth best) in that span. Their 89.0 MPH average exit velocity was tied for 10th-best in the big leagues. The lineup also improved as the game went on, scoring a league-best average of 1.68 runs in the seventh inning or later.
Compare that to how dismal Twins hitters have produced with power and in the clutch. Since August 18, they have been the 21st-ranked lineup in baseball in runs scored. Minnesota’s runs after the 7th inning dipped to a 1.56 run average on the season.
However, their power numbers are the most concerning. Post August 18, the Twins have only hit 26 home runs. Only the Chicago White Sox have hit fewer long balls in that time. The same goes for their .355 team slugging percentage since mid-August. The team’s 88.2 MPH average exit velocity is 23rd in the majors, and their 18.1 percent soft contact rate has been the fifth-worst in baseball since Aug. 18.
Minnesota’s numbers are partially down because they’ve been unhealthy. The Twins didn’t have Byron Buxton or Carlos Correa through most of the team’s collapse. Still, Buxton has been slashing .250/.294/.375 with a 90 wRC+ and one home run since returning on Sept. 13. Conversely, Correa has been exceptional. He has a .292/.433/.375 slashline and a 143 wRC+ since coming back on September 14.
Those guys have been relatively productive, and the lineup is still 18th in the league, with 35 runs scored starting on Sept. 13. But even with Buxton and Correa out, the Twins were still primarily playing with most of their starters from the season and still unable to produce.
Minnesota’s pitching identity is much different from a season ago. The 2023 Twins relied on their deep starting pitching. Their budget cuts this season meant the team focused their limited resources on building a veteran bullpen and would have a young pitching staff.
The bullpen was never perfect. However, early in the season, it came through more often than not. It worked in the first half of the season. Minnesota’s relievers had the eighth-best bullpen (3.51 ERA) in the first half of 2024. Since then, it’s been one of the worst in baseball, with a 5.11 ERA.
Injuries and overuse tanked the relief unit. Jhoan Duran missed the first month of the season, and he’s pitched with less velocity and was less effective in 2024. They acquired Justin Topa as a late-inning option in the Jorge Polanco trade, but he hasn’t thrown an inning for the Twins in 2024. Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack’s injuries have limited the team’s pitching depth. As a result, they’ve used three rookies in the rotation and had mixed results.
As a result, Minnesota’s bullpen had to compensate for the starting staff rather than supplement it. Only four teams used their bullpen less in the first half of the 2024 season. But after the All-Star Break, the Twins bullpen pitched 225.1 innings, the 13th-most in baseball.
The Twins also played different guys in multiple positions to enable maximum flexibility. However, that hasn’t been the case in the second half. For example, Willi Castro logged at least 25 appearances at five different positions before the All-Star Break, but it was a different story afterward. Filling in for Correa after he got hurt before the All-Star Break, Castro has played shortstop in 33 of the last 60 games. It’s limited his value to bounce around the diamond and serve the desired role of super-utility player.
Minnesota doesn’t have a perfect identity crisis. With only five games left, it feels like anything they do would be too little, too late. Still, baseball can be a strange game, and luck can turn around in an instant. The Twins can salvage their efforts in several areas to limp into the postseason.
First, they need to generate some kind of power. They need to hit the ball hard and in the air semi-consistently. The ball doesn’t always have to go over the fence. Still, they need to hit it to the outfield closer to the 88.8 MPH league average exit velocity than their current 88.2 MPH average exit velocity and bottom-five 18.1 percent soft contact rate since August 18.
They can do that by taking better at-bats to ensure a hitter can get the best pitch possible to hit. That won’t be easy, considering Minnesota’s 12th-highest 47.9 percent swing rate pre-Aug. 18 bumped up to the third-highest with a 50.3 percent swing rate.
The Minnesota Twins are staring down a second September collapse in the last three seasons. There is a chance they can get back on track in the final week. But for that to happen, the Twins need to find some semblance of the identity that put them in a playoff position in the first place. Finding their power in the lineup and getting just enough from the pitching staff can guide the ship. But they are running out of time.
