Trevor Larnach has an outside reputation as a man of few words. Even in TV interviews, he comes off as reserved. In a way, it’s fitting because the hype around the former first-round draft pick has quieted over the last two years. Larnach debuted in 2021 and had a career .222/.315/.385 slash line with 20 home runs, a 96 wRC+, and a 33.6 percent strikeout rate in 188 games entering this season.
Larnach has shown flashes of first-round talent. However, various injuries in his first three major league seasons have reduced his production. Groin and core injuries held him back in 2022. He landed on the injured list with pneumonia in May 2023 and never got his season back on track. He even came into this season battling turf toe and started the campaign on the injured list before making his 2024 debut on April 16.
Larnach’s quiet nature is also fitting because the hype around the 2018 College World Series champion among the fanbase has been hushed over the last couple of years. With the emergence of other young outfielders like Matt Wallner, Willi Castro, and Austin Martin, it felt like his status in the organization was beginning to drop. The 2024 season is also the last option year for Larnach, meaning he needs to prove in a hurry that he can be part of Minnesota’s long-term future.
However, as we head towards the final 50 games of the 2024 season, Larnach has quietly built an impressive season in a year where he needed to prove he can be a part of this organization’s plans. Through 72 games, Larnach has a .248/.324/.430 slash line with 11 home runs, a 114 wRC+. It’s easily been his most productive season as a big leaguer. Larnach has produced career highs in home runs, batting average, and wRC+. As he tries to navigate through some injuries in recent seasons, he is just 7 games away from tying his career-high 79 games played, which he set in 2021.
Strikeouts have always been Larnach’s issue. He’s always been a boom-or-bust hitter, but he needs to mitigate the swings and misses to avoid bottoming out at the plate. A hitter can manage their high strikeout numbers in a couple of ways. One is by learning to hit offspeed pitches. Another is learning how to fight them off while waiting to get a mistake fastball that he can take deep.
Larnach made adjustments to his swing to help reduce his swings and misses. His 27.1 percent whiff rate may be nearly 10 percent better than his previous career best, but it’s still just worse than the 24.8 percent league-average whiff rate. That’s despite his career-high 45.1 percent swing rate and a 47 percent chase contact rate. Larnach’s swing adjustments allow him to foul off offspeed pitches he used to swing at and miss.
Still, he’s meaningfully improved because of his willingness to fight off pitches and wait to capitalize on a pitcher’s mistake. Larnach’s 34.2 percent whiff rate against the slider is much improved from the 49.2 percent swing and misses against the pitch a year ago, allowing him to pound fastballs. He has a +5 run value against 4-seam fastballs and a +5 value against cut fastballs (cutters), which are career bests. That’s despite seeing fewer fastballs in 2024 (45.4 percent) than in 2023 (49.1 percent). Compare that to his 0 run value against the fastball a season ago, and there’s reason to be optimistic for his future.
However, Larnach is still working through some things. Despite having success this season, his turf toe delayed the start of his season and has seemed to linger, preventing him from producing better numbers. It put a limit on his opportunities early this season as just the designated hitter instead of being more flexible. As an outfielder, Larnach has 32 appearances compared to 39 appearances as a designated hitter to lessen his workload.
The other issue is that his success is in a more controlled environment. Rocco Baldelli has kept Larnach sidelined against most left-handed pitchers. He only has 11 at-bats against southpaws with a .432 OPS while recording 219 at-bats against right-handed pitchers with a .771 OPS. It’s hard to see Laranch, 27, getting more consistent opportunities against lefties in his fourth MLB season. At this point, he might just be a platoon outfield bat. Still, as we’ve seen with other Twins, a platoon hitter gets plenty of at-bats throughout a season.
Larnach’s high-impact, albeit quietly productive, season won’t get him an All-Star nod or national accolades. However, it allows the organization to regain confidence that they can involve Larnach in their plans. He can add some pop in the middle of the lineup while showing improvement in his weakest swing-and-miss traits.
Even with his improvements, Larnach may not fully be the prospect the Twins envisioned three years ago. However, he has exhibited enough progress with the season he’s having to indicate that Larnach could wiggle his way back into an everyday starting spot, not just for this year’s playoff push but for 2025.
Minnesota’s corner outfield spots are up for grabs next year. Max Kepler’s impending free agency will likely open up right field for a different Twins player to take over. Matt Wallner profiles as a better right fielder than Larnach due to his cannon arm. However, that also means the starting left field spot next season is wide open between Larnach, Castro, and Martin. Even if it’s primarily as a platoon role to smack righties, that is a role Larnach could do well in if he continues his trajectory.
Trevor Larnach’s 2024 season began as a quietly important year for his status in the Twins organization. Over the last few months, he has proven that he can be a player the Twins can count on in 2024. Larnach can extend his time in Minnesota if he continues to deliberately seek out mistake fastballs while managing his strikeouts.
