With a month left in the 2024 season, the vibes around the Minnesota Twins have mostly been positive. Yes, there has been off-the-field noise. There have also been a few decisions that fans wish were never made. But entering Wednesday’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Twins are a likely playoff team and have an outside chance of winning another division title.
That was the front office’s vision for this team, even as they were slashing payroll last winter. But fans want more. They ended an 18-game postseason losing streak last season and are arguably better this year. Therefore, expectations are higher, and the stress level rose as Minnesota posted a .500 record (14-14) in August.
When it feels like a season is circling the drain, fans look for historical comparisons to their team. While some provide optimism, others are confirmation that it’s over. Some just lower expectations to make the payoff that much sweeter.
There are a few examples that fans can turn to for the Twins. Ultimately, it’s a question of how history will repeat itself down the stretch.
The modern pessimist could look at this year’s team and see a lot of the 2022 Twins. Fueled by visions of Carlos Correa turning into Jack Morris on a one-year deal, many fans believed that this was the year they should go all in to win a championship. The front office did its part, loading the roster with trade acquisitions Tyler Mahle, Jorge López, and Michael Fulmer. However, the baseball gods had other ideas.
Minnesota entered August with a 54-48 record in 2022 but limped to a 14-14 record that month. Injuries began to pile up. Byron Buxton, Mahle, and Royce Lewis ended up on the bench, and a rotation that relied on Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Devin Smeltzer fell apart.
The Twins finished the year by going 11-22 in September and October and finishing in fourth place in the division after leading it for most of the season. However, the year may have been a blessing in disguise because it helped Minnesota move up in the inaugural draft lottery to select Walker Jenkins with the fifth overall pick. However, it was no consolation to fans who watched a season and a monster final month by Correa go into the tank.
Thirty years later, there was another example of a promising Twins team gone awry. In 1992, the Twins were coming off their second World Series championship in four years and were poised to return to the postseason. They entered August with a 62-42 record and a 1.5-game lead in the American League West.
However, Minnesota’s lineup went dark at that moment. The Twins scored three or fewer runs in 19 games in August, and their rotation had a pair of young arms in 23-year-old Willie Banks (4-4, 5.70 ERA) and 21-year-old Pat Mahomes (3-4, 5.04 ERA).
Minnesota rebounded to go 17-13 between September and October and probably would have made the playoffs in MLB’s current format. But in the four-team postseason, a rough month derailed their postseason hopes. The Twins wouldn’t return until winning the AL Central in 2002.
The 1992 and 2022 Twins are examples of seasons going off the rails, but most fans like to remain optimistic. Since MLB expanded to a 12-team format in 2022, three teams that played in the wild card round went on to play in the World Series, giving the current playoff picture a get in and see what happens mentality.
That has Twins fans looking longingly at the 2023 Texas Rangers. Last year, the Rangers entered August with a 60-46 record but went 29-26 down the stretch. Four losses in their final six games cost them the AL West title. Therefore, Texas had to run through a gauntlet, facing the teams with the three top records in the American League: the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, and Houston Astros.
But when the sky started falling, the Rangers reached (sigh) higher. Several players had career runs in the postseason, including Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager. The Rangers got help on the mound as Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi stepped up to become postseason aces.
Top prospect Evan Carter joined the Rangers to make several big plays in October. Future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy pushed the right buttons to lead them through the American League, and a five-game World Series win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.
After Arizona’s miracle run, Twins fans may be saying, Why not us? The Rangers showed that a late rough patch isn’t enough to derail a season. If you squint hard enough, you could see a team that can get hot at the right moment.
Buxton and Correa are on the shelf due to injury, but the feeling is that both players could return in time for the postseason. While it’s unlikely without a long run, Joe Ryan could return in October. He’d be joining Pablo Lopez, who hasn’t allowed a run in his last 20.2 innings, and Bailey Ober, who has allowed three or fewer runs in 12 of his last 13 starts.
If things go to plan, the Twins would need someone to break out. That has been a case of shiftwork throughout the first several months of the year. Ryan Jeffers propelled Minnesota through the season’s opening months before Correa became scorching hot in June. José Miranda had a hot stretch at the beginning of July, and Buxton started swinging a hot bat when the Twins entered August.
By that point, it could be on a young player to step up and lead the way. David Festa has logged a 3.13 ERA since being recalled for his second stint on July 24, and Brooks Lee‘s return could also spark the Twins lineup. Maybe this could be Lewis’s turn to shine after hitting just .218 over his last 42 games.
However, some things could go wrong. Injuries have begun to pile up in the same way that they did two years ago. If Correa doesn’t come back or another critical injury happens, it could be something the Twins can’t recover from, making them an easy target in the playoffs.
The Twins must also display the mental toughness needed to run through the American League. The Cleveland Guardians still own a 7-2 record over Minnesota, and a trip to Yankee Stadium or Camden Yards would invoke enough October scaries to fuel a Friday the 13th marathon.
These scenarios could play out over the final month, and the Twins may have to change their history to make a deep playoff run.
