So, the last time the Packers won a game in LA was in December 1966. The way my brain works, I decided to check and see what the No. 1 song was in the US that year. You guessed it: “California Dreamin’” by the Mamas & the Papas. It feels like a sign to me. OK, sure, they lost when the team was based in Anaheim, but that’s not LA now, is it?
This is the 100th meeting between these teams in a rivalry that has been completely one-sided lately. Matt LaFleur is 4-0 against his ‘brother from another mother’ and mentor Sean McVay, and the Pack has won nine of the last 10 in the series. But this game won’t be in cold weather at Lambeau like the last four meetings.
The Pack will be the last NFC team to visit SoFi Stadium, and, like most of the others, they will likely have as many of their own fans there as the Rams. Hometown advantage or not, the Rams come into this one a hungry, banged-up team, looking forward to a much-needed bye next week and desperate not to drop to 1-4 in the tough NFC West.
Meanwhile, the Packers are looking to rebound from an ugly performance against the Purple and hope that Jordan Love’s 200-yard fourth quarter is a sign that he felt more comfortable as the game went along and will look more like his healthy self this week. The offense should feast against a Rams defense that ranks at the bottom of the league in yards and points per game, rush defense, and turnovers.
The team is getting a nice boost from its top two rookies, DE Jared Verse and DT Braden Fiske, but they’ve missed the retired Aaron Donald and Ernest Jones, who they traded. Their inside linebackers are getting gashed by the run and in coverage, and their young secondary is getting torched. The Rams have missed 44 tackles in four games, which is the worst in the league. Longtime All-Pro corner Tre’Davious White looks like a shell of his former self following an Achilles injury. Veteran Darious Williams has been on IR, though may play on Sunday.
That should set up Love and Co. to dictate things when they’re on the field. Expect the Pack to lean heavily on the ground game early to see how effective it can be. They will be a bit short-handed in the passing game, with Christian Watson out and Romeo Doubs suddenly labeled doubtful. He missed practice Thursday and Friday for personal reasons, which is obviously concerning.
That opens the door for Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks to continue to be the apple of Love’s eye. Still, they’ll need Bo Melton and Malik Heath to make the most of their expanded opportunities. The Packers will also lean on Tucker Kraft will be leaned on because he gets the lion’s share of the snaps.
The Pack should have a good chance to jump on the scoreboard first. The Rams have only had the lead for 6% of their offensive snaps and have averaged only one point per drive in the first half, the worst in the league. They’re almost three times more productive in the second half, so the Pack’s D can’t let down their guard if they get a nice lead (just ask the 49ers).
With star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua still out, running back Kyren Williams is LA’s top playmaker, and you can bet McVay will test the Pack’s run defense to put Matthew Stafford in favorable second- and third-down spots. Williams is also a threat as a receiver, and the Packers have been susceptible to screens lately.
Without Wyatt, TJ Slaton and Karl Brooks will get more playing time and need to step up next to Kenny Clark, who’s dealing with a toe injury. Without those top weapons, the Rams offense has been putrid in the red zone; Stafford has just one touchdown pass the last three weeks. We’ll keep an eye on Jaire Alexander and Carrington Valentine – they’re both listed as questionable.
There’s been a lot of attention on Rashan Gary’s lack of production, and if that continues on Sunday, the drumbeat will only get louder. After a training camp where reporters were raving about his dominance, he’s been nearly invisible the last two games when mobile quarterbacks didn’t hold back the pass rush. The Rams are down three starting offensive linemen, and if the Pack can’t affect Stafford’s timing this week, we’ve got problems.
The wild card, of course, is the Packers kicking game. If Braden Narveson misses another kick this week, you have to believe the team will cut him loose. Will LaFleur be hesitant to trot him out there if he feels like his offense has just as good a chance of converting the first down? It will be interesting to follow.
On paper, everything seems to favor the Packers. They have the league’s most explosive offense, and are facing a defense that’s given up the most explosive plays in the league. They’re playing on what will amount to a neutral field and are coming off an ugly performance against a rival and can’t wait to take it out on someone.
But something doesn’t quite feel right about this team just yet. I have no doubt the Packers will get their act together. Still, the penalties, drops, and missed kicks continue to keep their opponents in games. The well-coached, desperate 1-3 Rams will probably stick around in this one.
I recorded “Packer Preview” on Friday because we’re preempted by early Vikings football on Sunday. You can find the podcast version of the show on the iHeart Radio app or iTunes. On the podcast, I went with a 31-20 Packers win, but the more I think about it, I think it’s going to be a high-scoring barnburner.
Packers 35
Rams 33
