Matt LaFleur has been a pretty good coach for the Green Bay Packers. His overall stats are solid, including a 56-27 regular-season record and three playoff wins. However, one interesting spread is in his Week 1 games.
He boasts a 3-2 record for Week 1 games, but the two losses are some of his team’s most embarrassing — a 38-3 stomping from the New Orleans Saints in 2021 and a 23-7 loss on 9/11 in 2022.
Yet two of the wins were absolutely one-sided. In 2020, LaFleur’s warpath with the league’s best offense began in Week 1 in a 43-34 victory over the Minnesota Vikings that wasn’t nearly as close as the score suggests. In 2023, the Packers opened Jordan Love‘s starting career with a statement win over the Chicago Bears, 38-20.
Only his first game as head coach, a 10-3 victory over the Bears, wasn’t completely one-sided.
The Packers are set to open their season on foreign soil this Friday, facing the Philadelphia Eagles on a neutral field in Brazil. Green Bay and the Eagles have legitimate hopes of conquering the NFC, and it starts on Friday. What can LaFleur learn from his season openers of the past to ensure his team emerges from Brazil with a victory?
The Packers struck first in their two blowout wins in 2020 and 2023. They scored on their opening drives, a 31-yard field goal in 2020 and an eight-yard TD pass to Romeo Doubs in 2023.
That helped keep the pressure on, though the Vikings kept up through the first quarter in 2020.
Despite the fast start, the first quarters weren’t particularly exciting. In a classic Packers fashion, things came alive in the second quarter. They added 19 more points in the second quarter of the Vikings game, including two points from Jaire Alexander getting a safety on Kirk Cousins. In 2023, the points started piling up in the third quarter, with Aaron Jones becoming a focal point of the offense (before unfortunately exiting the game and missing a significant amount of time with a hamstring injury).
Scoring first and playing complementary football throughout the game were the main reasons for success. The 2020 offense proved to be the league’s best, and despite giving up some last-minute points, the defense did their job. The 2023 offense would go dormant for a few weeks after this game, but it showed what Jordan Love could do and what LaFleur could cook up without Aaron Rodgers, and the defense held against a lackluster Bears offense.
Green Bay looked woefully unprepared in the losses. Their opponents struck first in both games, and the Packers let the momentum build. In 2021, Joe Barry’s first year as defensive coordinator in Green Bay, his unit got kicked in the mouth from the get-go. It gave up 17 first-half points before the Packers finally got on the board with an end-of-half field goal. Green Bay wouldn’t score again while the Saints continued to pile up points.
Rodgers threw for two interceptions and no touchdowns and took a sack. He couldn’t connect with Davante Adams, who led the team with five catches and 56 yards. The loss was so bad that Love finished the game in relief of Rodgers.
The Minnesota game was filled with missed opportunities. Although the Vikings drew first blood, Green Bay quickly looked like it might return the favor. But Christian Watson dropped a wide-open deep bomb, and the Packers never found the momentum they needed. Their lone score came late in the third quarter, a two-yard rush from A.J. Dillon. The defense had no answer for Justin Jefferson, who tallied 184 yards and two TDs on nine catches, while Dalvin Cook rushed for 90 yards. It was a complete team failure.
In both instances, the Packers looked unprepared and couldn’t capitalize on opportunities in any phase of the game. It’s worth noting that, like this year’s opening game, the showdown against New Orleans in Jacksonville.
There are two reasons to believe the Packers won’t repeat these mistakes: the new quarterback and the new defensive coordinator.
Aaron Rodgers is one of the best to ever throw the football, and he won the MVP award in 2021. But relations between Rodgers and the Packers soured in 2021. Rodgers skipped the offseason activities in 2021 and only showed up to mandatory minicamp in 2022. He didn’t play in either preseason.
Thanks to his accomplishments, Rodgers earned some clout and proved he could win MVP without offseason activities in 2021. Still, it led to a slow start. While Rodgers probably wouldn’t have played in the preseason, that extra time with his younger wide receivers (especially in 2022) could have made all the difference. Rodgers also reverted to his style of hero ball in those two seasons after playing more within the offense’s rhythm in 2020.
Love may have missed some of training camp as he waited for his new deal, but he was in every meeting and quickly returned to practice. The team’s culture appears to be in a good spot, with Love’s leadership consistently lauded. It’s hard to believe the team will enter this team unprepared.
Secondly, the Packers moved on from DC Joe Barry over both losses. Hafley is untested as an NFL DC but has inspired confidence with his press conferences, teaching style, and willingness to challenge LaFleur. He’ll have his hands full defending dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts and Philly’s top-flight receivers. But this defense already looks more energized and prepared than it did under Barry.
Suppose the Packers can come in with a game plan, such as attacking Philly’s questionable secondary or their linebacker group missing Devin White, attacking quickly, and being aggressive on defense. Then, they can exit Brazil with a win. It’s worth noting that the Eagles hired Vic Fangio as their DC. Barry ran a variation of Fangio’s defense in Green Bay, so it’s a style they should have familiarity with.
Despite being Week 1, this is a high-stakes game between two teams with legitimate NFC Championship dreams. The game may be on a neutral field, favoring the Packers slightly. However, they’ve been burned on a neutral playing field in Week 1 before. Learn from past lessons, emulate the spirit of their early successes, don’t underestimate the opponent, and the team can start 1-0.
