For the second consecutive year, the Green Bay Packers will take the field on Thanksgiving. This time, they’ll face the Miami Dolphins under the Lambeau Field lights, with kickoff set for 7:15 p.m. central.
The Packers are coming off a dominant 38-10 home win over the San Francisco 49ers, while the Dolphins have won three straight, scoring at least 23 points in each. Miami is averaging 34 points over its last two games, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions in that span.
Mike McDaniel can and will scheme to stretch the field vertically. Miami has the fastest playmakers in the league, with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane. Tagovailoa has a 92.9 passing grade, six big-time throws, and no turnover-worthy plays on throws of 20-plus yards.
However, Tua’s production drops on intermediate and short throws. He has a 70.4 passing grade with one touchdown, two interceptions, and two big-time throws on passes traveling 10 to 19 yards. On throws of 0-9 yards, his passing grade is 64, with no big-time throws and the sixth-highest turnover-worthy-play rate. While Tua has five passing touchdowns on short throws, he ranks 23rd in average depth of target.
Jeff Hafley’s defense must be ready to defend the big play. Green Bay ranks in the top 10 in EPA/play and 12th in EPA/pass. They held opponents to 10 or fewer points in the second half in nine of 11 games this season. The Packers have the scheme to shut down offenses, but Jaire Alexander’s availability will be crucial in determining if they can neutralize Miami’s explosive attack with Cover 1 and 3.
As The Athletic reported, Alexander said he tore his PCL and aggravated the injury during the Chicago Bears game in Week 11. Alexander explained:
I stayed here the whole bye week trying to hopefully come back and make an impact for the team. It was a game-time decision, so we didn’t know until, you know, a few minutes before the game if I would play or not.
Alexander’s return would allow Jeff Hafley to lean more on Cover 1 and Cover 3 packages without the concern of both cornerbacks getting burned. Eric Stokes and Keisean Nixon have allowed a combined 105.8 passer rating, with Stokes giving up a 124.9 rating.
Whether or not Alexander plays, the best plan for Green Bay’s defense to stop Miami’s speedy offense is to rely on Cover 2.
The Packers ranked in the bottom 10 for Cover 2 usage a year ago. In 2024, they are a top-10 defense in Cover 2 percentage. Hafley’s simulated pressures and coverage disguises have made Green Bay’s defense much more effective in this coverage.
Green Bay’s cornerbacks need safety help on both sides of the field. If they play single-high and double Waddle, Hill will likely get a one-on-one, and it’s tough to find anyone in the NFL who can match his speed. If they double Hill, Waddle can also beat the defense deep. He ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at the combine, and his speed often goes unnoticed due to Hill’s exceptional pace.
Focusing on covering the deep areas of the field could allow Tagovailoa to exploit Green Bay’s recurring issue with dink-and-dunk throws targeting the middle of the field. However, Quay Walker is coming off his best coverage performance of the season against the San Francisco 49ers.
He only allowed one catch on three targets, forced an incompletion, had a pass breakup, and a tip drill. If he can carry that momentum into Thursday, Jeff Hafley may have an easier time game planning without worrying too much about the middle of the field.
Playing a high percentage of Cover 2 can make defenses more susceptible to the run. However, Miami’s offense ranks 31st in EPA/rush, while Green Bay sits 15th in defensive EPA/rush. If the Packers lean heavily on two-shell looks, they’ll still have no excuse not to stuff the run.
Green Bay’s best chance to win is avoiding the big play through the air. They cannot allow Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to get one-on-one looks. If either Nixon or Stokes is left on an island with them, it will be a long day for the Packers’ defense.
