After introducing themselves in Santa Clara last January, pushing the NFC’s juggernaut to the brink, the Green Bay Packers’ young offense is primed to explode in Jordan Love’s second year at the helm. Just a couple of years after all-time greats Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams departed in consecutive offseasons, Love and head coach Matt LaFleur head into 2024 ranked eighth in NFL.com’s latest power rankings.
As Brian Gutekunst’s years-long succession plan played out, the Packers replaced Rodgers directly and seamlessly – the tough times didn’t even outlast October. On the other hand, they’ve replaced Adams in the aggregate, with the core four dynamic, role-playing pass-catchers Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks ensuring the ball gets spread around far more than Packers fans are used to.
Everyone has their specialty. Watson is the deep threat, the burner. His 4.36 40 time, combined with his massive 6’5” frame, was a key reason Gutekunst flew up the board to draft him 34th overall. Reed brings dynamism, which LaFleur often employs laterally and in the backfield, in addition to down the seam. Doubs is the contested-catch specialist, which has led to the Packers calling his number in many red-zone drives. If he’s in single coverage outside the numbers, it’s a good bet that Love and LaFleur will decide to go his way pre-snap. Wicks made waves as a rookie fifth-round pick. He brings crisp, meticulous route-running and open-field elusiveness despite relatively average measurables. If Reed is the new Randall Cobb, Wicks may be on his way to becoming the new Jordy Nelson.
If you were hoping to capitalize on your knowledge of the lesser-known guys in Green Bay’s receiver room as fantasy drafts get underway, I’m afraid I have some tough news. Reed and Watson regularly go as high as the top 75 on the main sites, from standard PPR format to best-ball tournaments. Doubs and Wicks aren’t too far behind. The secret is out that the Packers’ offense is a large pie that could feed a handful of contributors. But, contrary to the Minnesota Vikings’ smaller pie, which Justin Jefferson will eat as much of as he physically can, the slices may come out quite thin once they feed everyone.
The biggest slice will belong to new bell-cow running back Josh Jacobs. LaFleur has been upfront about his desire to get Jacobs involved early and often and, crucially, to use him in the passing game. Jacobs feels he has been underutilized as a pass catcher in his career thus far and is looking forward to being an outlet for Love. He will almost undoubtedly average between 20 and 30 touches a game, including a heavy involvement in the red zone. For fantasy drafters concerned about a split backfield with fourth-round rookie MarShawn Lloyd or incumbent backup AJ Dillon, training camp beat reporting is suggesting Lloyd’s floor is as low as a straight-up redshirt year, and Dillon’s measly, non-guaranteed contract makes him a borderline cut candidate.
There are also the tight ends. Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft had their moments in their rookie season. Musgrave flashed as a downfield threat, often lining up in the slot and showcasing his athleticism, except for a few falls that cost him dearly on the stat sheet. Kraft is the more physical of the two but showed off his receiving ability down the stretch in the absence of Musgrave. On paper, it feels like something has to give here, but like the receiving room, LaFleur has no problem with a committee approach. He called it a good problem to have and said it could lead to an increase in 12-personnel to take advantage of their depth at the position. A two tight-end formation, 12-personnel at a heavy dosage would be bad news for Reed and Wicks, who were often the odd men out in two-receiver sets.
How will this supersaturation of young talent shake out? I think Watson’s performance will have the greatest impact on that answer. He wasn’t just brought in to be FCS MVS; he has a legitimate game-breaking upside. We have seen it over stretches but never seasons, so perhaps a more precise answer would have been that his hamstrings will be the true arbiter. He claims to have had a medical breakthrough while visiting a soft tissue specialist during the offseason.
The most crucial factor to consider when going into your drafts is the tradeoff between consistency and upside. LaFleur and Love have expressed pride that their offense was turning up “a new No. 1 each week,” a stark contrast to the years of the one-man wrecking crew that was Adams. The problem is, what does that look like from a target, reception, and touchdown standpoint for the guys who aren’t having their turn on a given Sunday?
Even as training camp trains start to take off, they share the spotlight completely. Doubs was surging to the top of the leaderboard after dominating one-on-ones and other practice drills for a string of practices. Then Wicks kicked off the preseason opener with a 65-yard touchdown from Love. Around and around it goes. The bottom line is that it’s hard to expect solid week-to-week performances from any of the core four, nor Musgrave with Kraft in his wake.
If you’re looking to bet on Green Bay’s offense, the most bang for your buck comes with Jacobs somewhere in the 40th- to 50th-overall pick range, as well as Love, who will be distributing the rest of the pie and racking up points while doing so. As you weigh different receivers through the middle rounds of your drafts, consider the type of ceiling and floor you envision regarding week-to-week performance. If you have a breakout thesis for any specific four, that’s a good reason to pay the heavy price. However, Watson’s ceiling is almost undeniably the highest. The Packers are projecting to approach juggernaut levels of offensive output, but it doesn’t mean there will be enough to go around for fantasy purposes.