Green Bay Packers

Why Josh Jacobs Will See the Bell-Cow Workload That Aaron Jones Did Not

Photo Credit: Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

Green Bay Packers fans had high expectations heading into free agency. The team was on the heels of a playoff performance that declared their rebuild complete and arrival to long-term contention in the NFC under Jordan Love. With dead money from Aaron Rodgers’ final contract off the books, Brian Gutekunst was finally free to return to his high-roller ways for the first time since he brought Green Bay’s pass rush back from the dead in 2019 with two A-list open-market signings.

Safety was atop the list of most critical needs, and Xavier McKinney was atop everyone’s wishlist. Despite a deep veteran class of safeties up for grabs, Gutekunst shopped at the top of the market, making McKinney the league’s second-highest-paid center fielder.

Fans greeted that move with jubilation but not surprise. Conversely, their other big signing, running back Josh Jacobs, was a move nobody saw coming.

Similar to a year ago, there was uncertainty around Aaron Jones’ cap hit in the final year of a four-year, $48 million deal he’d inked in 2021. Jones emerged as a star in Green Bay, on and off the field, after being drafted in the fourth round in 2017. He loved the state of Wisconsin, and Wisconsin loved him back. However, due to failing long-term contracts for running backs around the league, Jones had to make economic concessions to stay.

Following his aforementioned extension, his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, made it clear that Jones could’ve landed a larger deal elsewhere. Additionally, the contract was essentially manufactured as a two-year deal because of the backloaded money and the low cost of a post-June 1 cut. That led to Jones taking a pay cut last offseason. The Packers asked him to do the same thing this time, and when he did not oblige, Gutekunst moved on. It’s a tough fate for a fan favorite, but it’s emblematic of the disciplined mentality that has allowed Green Bay to be such a consistently competitive franchise over the years.

Jacobs’ deal is for four years, $48 million, the same as Jones’ sticker price in 2021. It illustrates how adverse the market has become for ball carriers, particularly in contrast to the skyrocketing quarterback, wide receiver, edge rusher, and cornerback salaries. However, upon further inspection, it’s basically a one-year, $12.5 million deal with three subsequent team options for future years. It gives the team a lot of flexibility, and sadly, they exercised it with Jones.

As fantasy football drafts get underway, Jacobs isn’t in sight of top backs like Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson or even less-proven talents like De’Von Achane and Kyren Williams. A big part of the justification is that, well, Matt LaFleur never gave Jones a bell-cow workload, so how are we supposed to believe that Jacobs has the upside to sniff his 2022 RB1 season in Las Vegas? That line of thinking makes it about LaFleur. While there is a lot of evidence that he did underuse his star tailback at times, the managed workload had more to do with Jones than anyone else. He’s relatively undersized and has a lengthy history of MCL and general lower-body injuries. Jones has missed significant time in five of seven career seasons.

What about MarShawn Lloyd? Gutekunst selected the powerful USC product in the third round of this year’s draft, and he is the presumptive RB2 heading into camp. There are a couple of clear reasons why this pick made sense. The Packers have made it clear that they value the running back position despite the league’s direction. They have made sure to head into each season under Gutekunst with a star in the backfield, and when Jones’ time was up, they shopped at the top of the market for his replacement. Furthermore, they expended premium draft capital — a second-round pick — on AJ Dillon in 2020. He was intended to be the thunder to Jones’ lightning, and although the pick didn’t turn out the way the Packers wanted, it demonstrated their valuation of the position nonetheless.

When Jones went down in 2023, it exposed their lack of depth. Dillon’s one-dimensionality as a lead back stifled the offense. Due to an overwhelming saturation of the running back market in all tiers, Dillon is set to return to Green Bay. However, RB2 was penciled in and addressed as an important need regardless. Lloyd will have a secondary role compared to Jacobs. From a fantasy perspective, most of Lloyd’s upside is contingent on an injury in front of him.

The data shows that running-back production often falls off a cliff at age 27 or 28. By swapping Jones for Jacobs, the Packers have reset the clock and can be more liberal with their lead back’s workload. Jacobs’ option-laced contract ensures that any long-term injury will not come at the expense of the team’s future cap space. He was brought in to be the focal point, and with that insurance policy that came with him, he will be the focal point. As you prepare to draft this summer, keep in mind the context behind Jones’ limited workload before extrapolating it to project Josh Jacobs’.

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