The days of true point guards have dwindled in this decade of basketball. More teams are focusing on using their best offensive option to initiate the offense. That allows players with more elite, in-depth skill sets with size to maximize the offensive ceiling of the players around them. Teams have adapted their offenses to use the likes of LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as jumbo initiators of the offense.
While Anthony Edwards doesn’t have the height advantage of those jumbo initiators, his explosiveness and off-dribble scoring abilities offer supreme upside to taking over an even more prominent role. Edwards had a star-level usage percentage of 31.4% last year and has a 29% career usage percentage. However, the Minnesota Timberwolves have placed Edwards in a unique situation compared to the league’s other high-usage players.
The Wolves have created a retrograde scenario, primarily initiating their offense through Mike Conley. One of the few traditional point guards in the league. However, with Conley turning 37 this October and Edwards entering his fifth year in the league, will Ant be able to take over as a lead initiator?
The Timberwolves have experienced much of their recent success because they acquired Mike Conley at the deadline a season and a half ago. After they traded for Rudy Gobert, the Wolves needed time to gel around him. However, once they brought Conley in, he started to unlock more for them offensively. Conley plays a vital role in the offense, so what happens to Minnesota’s offensive flow as he ages?
A similar situation has already occurred in Phoenix. The Phoenix Suns tried to use Devin Booker as their initiator and de facto point guard. However, they experienced mixed results. Phoenix’s roster construction, clear rotational holes, lack of identity, and injuries derailed some of their experiment.
Booker’s advanced playmaking was not enough to drive Phoenix’s offense. In response, they signed Tyus Jones in the offseason to play a typical point guard role.
That doesn’t bode well for Ant’s prospects of getting more lead initiator reps. Still, Phoenix’s deeper issues assuage enough doubt to suggest Edwards could take on an ambitious role as lead initiator.
Despite Conley’s age, the Wolves should not rush to push Edwards into a labor-intensive role. He has slowly developed as a playmaker and can continue to do so without accelerating the process. Early on, reps were vital. Last year, Edwards developed his court vision and used his gravity to set others up more often. It takes any player time to develop a trait he didn’t prominently have as a prospect.
Edwards will get more time as the primary initiator within the game flow and rotations. Therefore, he will likely see a similar load to last season. He will get reps but must prove he can initiate in a playoff game or series.
Much of Edwards’ success as an initiator will be tied to Rob Dillingham’s development. Suppose the rookie continues to build upon the playmaking he showcased in the Summer League and at Kentucky. Then, he has a pathway to take over Conley’s role over time. However, much will come down to how Rob and Ant coexist within a lineup. While both have succeeded as high-usage guards playing off other initiators, they fall into a similar category of having another table setter around to help initiate the offense.
Given Minnesota’s luxury tax situation, it’s difficult to predict its roster moving forward. Still, if Rob and Ant can find ways to gel as pillars of the guard room, it would set the Wolves up in a beneficial direction to continue Ant’s development plan as a playmaker. He may not reach the heights of his high-usage peers because he may lack the true innate passing feel. However, Edwards can continue to make correct reads, set up teammates, effectively use counters, and build off his scoring prowess. That will raise Minnesota’s offensive ceiling, regardless of the personnel surrounding him.
