Size at the point guard position and the lead initiator role has become more vital in the NBA. It’s significantly more burdensome for smaller guards to find their spot in the league. Smaller guards can make an impact, though. Players like Jalen Brunson have been able to grind and find their niche. Ultimately, point guards take longer to develop than other positions, regardless of the player’s height.
Rob Dillingham is already at a crossroads. At 6’1”, 164 lbs., Rob is seeking his niche to quickly play winning basketball at the next level.
Historical comparisons and data have been the reliable litmus test to see whether small guards can succeed over time in the league, and it has been the leading candidate for determining the archetype’s value.
Over the last 10 years, plenty of other lottery-drafted players have been drafted with similar listings to Rob’s draft combine measurements. However, the results still do not paint a clear enough image for a reputable projection. Therefore, the concept of the small guard remains up for interpretation. While ceilings are often capped, a wide range of player outcomes still exist. Making it rare for players who match those measurements to be a lottery pick.
Six core players from the past 10 draft lotteries have a similar stature to Rob:
- Cam Payne: 6’1.5”, 182.8 lbs. (2015 Draft)
- Trae Young: 6’1.75”, 177.8 lbs. (2018 Draft)
- Collin Sexton: 6’1.5”, 183 lbs. (2018 Draft)
- Darius Garland: 6’1”, 190 lbs. (2019 Draft)
- Kira Lewis Jr.: 6’1.5”, 180 lbs. (2020 Draft)
- Davion Mitchell: 6’1.25”, 202.4 lbs. (2021 Draft)
Dillingham is unique because only a small group of lottery-drafted players match his height range. The differences in playstyle, weight and frame, and the complexity of the point guard position make Rob even more difficult to project.
The hit rate of this grouping is still impressive.
- Payne overcame early career struggles, blossoming into a nine-year veteran who has been a reliable bench option for multiple playoff teams.
- Young is a three-time All-Star, holding career averages of 25.5 points and 10.8 assists per game in six seasons as the Atlanta Hawks’ No. 1 scoring option.
- Sexton’s scoring ability translated. In his first six seasons, he averaged 18.9 PTS on 46.9/38.3/83.4 shooting splits.
- Garland quickly adjusted after a rocky rookie season, becoming one of the NBA’s premier dual-threat point guards. He posted career averages of 18.4 PTS and 6.7 AST on 44.8/38.4/86.4 shooting splits.
Inversely, Lewis and Mitchell have entered the league most recently and have had disappointing campaigns.
Lewis struggled to break the New Orleans Pelicans’ rotation. Inefficiency hindered his game before injuries derailed his career. He is a free agent, holding career averages of 5.2 points and 1.8 assists on 39.7/29.4/84.8 shooting splits in 131 career games.
Despite an intriguing Rookie season, Mitchell’s offense and lack of translation from his collegiate shooting efficiency have limited him to being an end-of-the-bench player. The Sacramento Kings continued to push him down the depth chart in his second and third seasons before trading him to the Toronto Raptors this off-season. Mitchell has averaged 7.4 points in his career, but his lack of ability to play off the ball has put his NBA career on the line this upcoming season.
The ability to score effectively off the dribble and from three are the main factors that have given these smaller guards an advantage and more opportunities for success. Young, Sexton, and Garland have developed an effective mix between pull-up shooting and playmaking. Meanwhile, three-point shooting is much of the difference between the successful rehabilitation of Payne’s career and Mitchell and Lewis’ early struggles. It is a vital catalyst to opening up more optionality for their role.
However, patience with player development is often the biggest factor. Young guards often struggle. Given the size of NBA players, it’s difficult for 19- to 20-year-old guards to read the floor and score. Therefore, it should not be that concerning if Rob showcases inefficiency in Year 1 – it’s a normal trend.
Here is how those six smaller guard prospects fared in their Rookie season as scorers:
The differentiations in scoring numbers, opportunity, and volume greatly impact these players’ true outcomes. However, much of that is due to the context of most lottery prospects landing on losing teams. That creates even more mystery in Rob’s scenario as he joins the Wolves just a year after they made a run to the Western Conference Finals.
Ultimately, much of Rob’s early development will come down to his ability to showcase the offensive versatility he showed at Kentucky. Suppose he can offer a balance of on-ball ability as a pull-up shooter and secondary playmaker, adding the capability of making three-point shots off the ball. Then, his pathway to success will only become clearer. Success for Dillingham may not mean becoming Trae Young or even Darius Garland. Still, Rob has many pathways to becoming a winning contributor at the next level.
