Considering their franchise’s history, the Minnesota Timberwolves are in an extremely unfamiliar situation. The national media anticipates they will be a championship contender.
Teams cannot control expectations as much of it is outside noise. However, we can still predict outcomes based on individual players’ career trajectories and the cumulative results of the roster. Minnesota’s five-year stretch of the Anthony Edwards era has indicated this well, with the team developing as a unit at a similar rate as Edwards.
However, the bigger question is how the Wolves continue to build upon their multi-year plan to match their new daunting contender expectations. Rebuilding teams in the play-in era have a relatively straightforward route to contention, and the slow year-by-year progress plan is the ideal scenario. However, it is much easier said than done, even as far along as the Wolves find themselves.
In 2021-22, Chris Finch’s first full season, Minnesota’s journey began with a realistic goal of finishing top ten in the Western Conference. Therefore, at a minimum, they could qualify for one game of high-intensity playoff-esque basketball in the play-in and have the chance to make the first round of the playoffs. Even with a play-in or first-round exit, getting out of the bottom five of the conference standings is still a fantastic litmus test of how a franchise is progressing.
Minnesota’s first taste of playoff experience against the Memphis Grizzlies epitomized the early signs of matching growing expectations. Additionally, plotting a progress point to build from moving forward.
The 2021-22 Wolves were an unknown. Edwards had begun to show flashes towards the end of his rookie season, but there still was far too much room for improvement to place heavy expectations on his shoulders. While the 2021-22 team had direction and promise, adding veteran role players Taurean Prince and Patrick Beverley to complement the youthful roster, much of it still would come down to their core of Edwards, Towns, and D’Angelo Russell.
Strong reliance on your core is a common theme within team building, as your star contributors will always judge the team’s ceiling no matter how deep the roster is. However, when a team is still fighting for a playoff spot, there’s significantly more leeway with the players’ fit and the unit’s potential growth – and that trend only grows as teams progress.
Minnesota’s multiple 20-plus point collapses against Memphis were disappointing. Still, the Wolves had made it through the play-in and into a competitive playoff series. They exceeded their expectations and showcased a potential bright future while their blossoming star, Edwards, continued to develop. He is already showing his promise as a scorer in the playoffs, averaging 25.2 PPG.
They had created a pathway to continue their linear development, building from the inside out through the development of Edwards. The goal was to finish higher in the conference, ideally as a top-six seed, avoiding the play-in chaos entirely.
The Wolves would surprise everyone with their blockbuster Rudy Gobert trade, which set the theoretical bar even higher — potentially speeding up the process and placing even more burden upon winning. They also added veteran Kyle Anderson on a two-year, $18 million contract to supplement their made-over roster.
However, adversity struck despite the Wolves coming off immense growth as a unit and adding another elite impact player in Gobert. Minnesota’s lack of continuity began to stunt its development. They had the growing pains of implementing Gobert, a calf injury sidelining Towns for most of the season, and they had to swap point guards at the deadline. Moving off D’Angelo Russell, who they once treated as a part of their core. Each element combined to set the Wolves back within their biggest year of change and optimism.
Despite these shortcomings, the Wolves won 42 games and crawled past the play-in into another competitive series. The eventual champion Denver Nuggets dispatched Minnesota in five games but stated the Timberwolves presented them with their greatest challenge. That set up another off-season reset, indicating that they would continue to grow with the goal of a top-six standings finish. They maintained a playoff series win as their goal, and everything finally started to align.
The Wolves would go on to have their best season in two decades. They posted the league’s best defense and were the 1-seed for most of the season, finishing third in a close race with Denver and Oklahoma City. Both avoided the play-in and reaped the benefits of the Gobert trade. They created a fairly linear growth pattern, even with some bumps in the road. They accomplished the goals that derailed their seasons prior.
- 2020-21 | 23-49 record | 13th place finish | No playoffs
- 2021-22 | 46-36 record | 7th place finish | first-round loss in 6 games vs. Memphis
- 2022-23 | 42-40 record | 8th place finish | first-round loss in 5 games vs. Denver
- 2023-24 | 56-28 record | 3rd place finish | Conference finals loss in 5 vs. Dallas
The numbers and results showcased the importance of finding the right core, coaching staff, and front office. They have built continuity over time and have found their identity, balancing the traits of all three levels of the organization. In the NBA’s ever-changing landscape, keeping everyone around, from your core stars to key rotational players, is vital and has become a strength of this Wolves team over their three-year run of success. Overall, it is important to determine which players can be potential contributors to a higher ceiling and move off those who may be a hindrance.
Teams may not consider expectations and outside noise from major media outlets. Still, the cumulative pressure ranging from potential front office trades, coaching jobs, and the playing performance impacting contracts is on the line. In addition to the existing endeavor for on-court winning success, “championship windows” are rare and difficult to gauge.
After all, teams can only control what they can control. The Wolves already have their defensive identity, extensive continuity top to bottom within the rotation, three years of prior success, and are fresh off one of the best seasons in franchise history. While the expectations are lofty, the Wolves have built a structure to embrace their fate fully. Even if it matches what they did last season, they will have to have another successful season and another chance at a playoff run.
