Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Ohio State First Half Team Total Over 14.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
Let me start by saying that the full game team total for Ohio State is less attractive to me because of number and price. It’s currently at either 29.5 or 30.5 which are relatively awkward numbers, but also juiced at a standard price. That’s not the case for this relatively awkward number, and I’m gravitating to the first half here because of the plus-juice return. And if the Buckeyes come out firing like they have in two playoff games so far, this number will look like a bargain.
I think they can definitely have another start like in the past two games where they put up 21 and 34 points before halftime. The Buckeyes have hit the eff-it button in the playoffs, unleashing the full potential of their offense instead of the conservative style that got them to the brink of missing the CFP altogether. And I’ve seen some leakiness from the Texas defense in their two games against offenses that don’t hold a candle to what Ohio State’s potential is, so look for the Buckeyes to keep this scoring binge going right away tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder -3.5 @ NY Knicks (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on NBA TV
This game opened with OKC laying just 1.5 points and has quickly risen to here, which tells me there’s a lot of concern that Karl-Anthony Towns is out. He’s listed as a game-time decision so be sure to pay attention to his status, but line movement tends to paint a pretty clear picture in these situations.
Even with KAT in the lineup it wasn’t enough to handle the talent of the Thunder in the first meeting last week, as OKC overcame a couple of significant deficits to win and cover. Now they’re coming off a high-profile loss that snapped their 10-game winning streak and looking for a bounce back, so a motivated Thunder team should be a scary team. OKC wins with defense as the team with the best defensive rating in the league, and after giving up 129 to Cleveland on Wednesday they’ll be looking to clamp down, make a statement, and cover this short spread.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Fairleigh Dickinson/Le Moyne Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NEC Front Row
Friday nights like this in college basketball force you to scrape the bottom of the barrel, and that’s exactly what we have here. These teams stink, ranked 316th and 346th in KenPom, but it’s the awfulness of their defenses that has my attention here. Le Moyne ranks 337th and Fairleigh Dickinson 346th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and even though the offenses aren’t anything special, a sneaky matchup should produce points here.
What Fairleigh Dickinson can say they’re good at is perimeter offense and defense, shooting a decent percentage from deep and actually owning the 39th-best three-point percentage defense in the country. That won’t matter to Le Moyne, who can’t shoot three’s and doesn’t try, but have a solid interior offense that can exploit an FDU defense that’s 336th in two-point percentage allowed. These teams are also relatively faster-paced, and if they’re trading buckets the way I expect, tempo and awful defense should get this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Siena/Quinnipiac First Half Under 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Another bottom of the barrel game, and this one should be much less interesting. These two offenses are pretty rough, ranked right next to each other at 295th and 296th in adjusted offensive efficiency. While Quinnipiac plays an up-tempo style, the Bobcats can’t shoot, ranked 338th in effective field goal rate and 354th in three-point percentage. Siena is the extremely slow-paced team with plenty of scoring issues themselves, most notably ranking 325th in first half scoring. Both defenses are serviceable, with a common weakness against the three-ball, but neither offense shoots it well from deep and I think that holds this to a low-scoring start.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +74.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
