Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/14

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Atlanta Hawks First Half Over 115 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

Keep a close eye on the status of Trae Young as he’s listed as a game-time decision for tonight. But with him in the lineup, this should end up being another high-flying first half which both teams have been trending towards lately. The Suns in particular have seen first halves take off recently, which is unusual for a team that’s middle of the pack in first half scoring, helping to explain the lower number here.

One of those was last week, as the Suns hosted the Hawks and saw 140 points on the board at halftime. But only 98 were scored in the second half, which is another reason I’m looking to isolate the first half here. Things tend to get wild in Hawks home games as they lead the NBA with a 13-4 over record at home, and I think that starts early against another good offensive team.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Ole Miss/Alabama Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

I don’t think the kind of credit Ole Miss and their defense are getting is warranted, and they’re about to find out the hard way tonight. There probably isn’t a scarier offense than Alabama at home, and the Tide are head and shoulders above any competition the Rebels have seen this season. Ole Miss has faced three opponents with offenses in the top-50 of adjusted efficiency, and allowed an average of 84.0 PPG. Alabama is ranked 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and just put 94 up on the road against a Texas A&M defense ranked 13th in the nation. The Tide’s pace is impossible to slow down in Tuscaloosa and they’re showing improvement in their three-point shooting, so I just don’t see how this game doesn’t erupt.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Missouri @ Florida -10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Florida is for real this season, with an elite combination of offense and defense, ranked 8th and 14th, respectively, in adjusted efficiency. But since they gave up 106 points on the road at Kentucky 10 days ago in one of the wildest games of the season, it’s been the defense on display for the Gators. I think that’s what carries them here against a Missouri team that hasn’t played away from home very much, but struggles when they do.

Offense travels far less than defense in college hoops, especially in an elite conference like the SEC. So a Tigers offense that wants to score inside will find out quickly how tough that is against an excellent interior defense for Florida. It will also be tough for Mizzou to get a favorable whistle tonight, something they’re used to at home as they try to live at the line. Without those easier sources of points, I think Florida exerts their will once again and easily takes this by double digits.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech -3.5 First Half @ Kansas St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I’ll play the narrative here and expect the Red Raiders, who are the vastly superior team, to come in fired up for this game. Their narrow loss to my Cyclones on Saturday thanks to a big blown lead and improbable late sequence has to have them in a bad mood, and I think they can take it out on Kansas State tonight. This Wildcats team is a little broken on offense, especially in taking care of the ball and shooting free throws.

Plus, their 292nd-ranked three-point defense is likely in trouble against a Tech team that’s 8th in three-point percentage and has the nation’s best shooter from deep in Chance McMillan. The Red Raiders are 10th in average first half margin this season and have already fared well on the road against middling Big12 competition, so look for them to execute well early on and take a solid lead into halftime.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick has gained +71.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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