Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Washington Wizards/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 222.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
These teams combined for 226 points when they met the first time a couple weeks ago. Since then the Wizards have gotten demonstrably worse, while the Wolves have undoubtedly improved, so I see another blowout in the works here. What that typically means for Wolves games is them dropping another number close to 130 points, and just a moderate contribution from the opponent at that point makes it an easy over.
Scoring on Washington is about as easy as it gets, with the Wizards allowing the most points in the league and having the worst defensive efficiency on the road. With some younger players getting a chance tonight for Minnesota, I think they use this soft opponent as a chance to pad stats which gets this game over the number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas St @ Iowa St -8.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN2
There’s only one logical way to go in a bounce back game for my Cyclones, and that’s to back them for a hot start. After a wild buzzer beater set up a loss at Arizona, coming home to Hilton will be just what they need to get back on track. I see them leaning on their 11th-best average first half margin in the country at plus-8.7 points, which rises to plus-15.4 at home. They’ve already covered numbers like this against far better teams than Kansas State, and the Wildcats have failed to keep first halves close against much weaker competition. With atonement on their minds, look for the Clones to jump out early and make a statement to the Hilton crowd.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Wisconsin -2.5 @ Northwestern (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on FS1
Usually by now, Northwestern would have sprung a couple of big upsets on unsuspecting Big10 opponents. But those haven’t materialized this season outside of their rivalry game against Illinois, which to me signals a down year in Evanston. That leaves them ripe for Wisconsin to continue a very impressive run in conference play, and I don’t think the Wildcats can keep up with the Badger offense.
That’s what Wisconsin is leaning on this season at 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and a Northwestern squad that has significantly dropped off in shooting simply can’t produce at that level offensively. I think that makes the difference in a solid road win where the Badgers bounce back from choking the game at Maryland this week.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) BYU/UCF Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN+
UCF just can’t help themselves, turning every Big12 game of theirs into a track meet. The Knights are 6-3 to the over in conference play, but having a partner that’s able to put up plenty of points is the key, and that’s what BYU can do here. UCF will dial up the tempo today, which should give BYU lots of opportunities to use their high-volume three-point shooting to pile up points against a defense allowing a lot of points from the perimeter. And I don’t think the Cougars will be able to slow things down in a cross-country road game, so an up-tempo style throughout a tight game should send it over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech @ Houston -6 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN2
It’s Houston, it’s the Fertitta Center, it’s the first half, and the opponent never really seems to matter. Texas Tech is going to get a dose of reality here as they face their toughest game of the season by a wide margin. The Red Raiders might have five straight wins and be 4-0 in Big12 road games, but their schedule has been as soft as it can get in this conference.
Houston simply rolls at home, owning the best first half average margin in the country including home games at plus-20.4 points. They have a plus-10.9 point average margin in conference games, which rises to 15.3 points when Big12 opponents come to Houston. I think they are a little undervalued in this spot with Texas Tech being inflated by the soft schedule, and a high-profile game is the perfect opportunity to put an in-state rival in their place.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +68.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
