Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) West Virginia/Cincinnati Under 127.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This total is low for a good reason, and I think we see another under from the best there is in the country. That would be Cincinnati, who checks in with the best under record nationally at 17-3 this season, and they have a great partner to cash another under today. West Virginia is right up there with the Bearcats for great under records, with the 12th-best under record this season of 6-13-1, so I do not expect points to be plentiful here.
It will be a battle of defenses and slow tempos, with the Mountaineers 26th and the Bearcats 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, plus both teams rank in the bottom-65 for adjusted tempo. And both teams are very good at neutralizing what the other wants to do offensively. West Virginia has to hoist a lot of three’s but Cincy really limits three-point production, and the Bearcats should struggle to score inside against a tough WVU defense. This game should be slow and ugly, so look for these teams to pad those skewed under records.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Siena Team Total Over 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Home is where the points are for Siena, and I think they score well in a revenge game here. The Saints have a pretty ridiculous home/road split when it comes to offensive production, scoring 10.7 more PPG at home than on the road. And in MAAC play it gets far more drastic, averaging just 63.3 on the road and 81.8 at home.
One of those road game flops was at Quinnipiac where they only managed 53 points, so I think that helps to create a buy-low opportunity here. The Bobcats are nothing special defensively, especially against the three which Siena relies heavily on, and they’re allowing 73.4 PPG away from home this season. I’ll count on the home court boost to get Siena back on track offensively here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Evansville/Belmont Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+
High-scoring track meets are just another day at the office for Belmont who checks in with the 9th-best over record in the country. But they are not the norm for Evansville who is just 7-14 to the over this season, so something is going to have to change for the Purple Aces. I think all that’s needed is for them to play Belmont, who got them into their highest-scoring conference game and second-highest all year when they combined for 167 points two weeks ago.
That was Evansville’s highest scoring output of the season as well, and I’m not viewing it as an outlier, but rather a function of Belmont’s style and defense. The Bears push tempo at every opportunity and come into this game with a very poor shooting defense, ranked 332nd in opponent effective field goal rate. Evansville doesn’t shoot it very well, but if the cure for those ills is facing Belmont, then the kind of game that should unfold here will get it over this moderate total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) NDSU @ St Thomas -2 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:00 PM CT on CBSSN
I can understand why this would be a tight spread as both teams are very similar and this game could turn into a shooting masterclass. These are elite offensive teams who are 2nd and 3rd in the country for effective field goal percentage, so trading buckets back and forth all day is a recipe for a nailbiter. But I think St Thomas has established themselves much more clearly as the top Summit League contender, due in large part to already having beaten NDSU a month ago.
The Bison have had trouble against the top-tier teams in the Summit, losing at home to all three teams ahead of them in the standings. Now having to face one of them on the road for the first time will make things even more difficult, and the Tommies should be ready here. A national TV game coming to little Schoenecker Arena is a big deal so I’d expect a big home court edge. And if NDSU’s three-point shooting experiences any cold moments like it did last game, the team most reliant on the three in the country can fall behind in a hurry. So I’ll back the more proven, hungry, hyped-up home squad today.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) DePaul First Half Team Total Over 33 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on FS1
Welcome to the Big East All-Disappointment Bowl, where I do think one team has a clear advantage. That would be the home Blue Demons, who should be looking for an opportunity to finally step on a team. DePaul spent most of the non-conference slate looking strong offensively, especially with their three-point shooting, and were one of the highest-scoring first half teams in the country for a while.
That has since fallen off against the strong Big East defenses, but they still average 37.1 first half points at home for the year. What got them those high-scoring outputs was three-point shooting, and they should be able to revive that here against a Seton Hall team that’s 293rd in three-point percentage defense and allowing a lot of production from deep. The Pirates have also allowed more than this number in every conference road game, and are allowing 37.6 first half points in Big East play. That includes 41 to DePaul when the Blue Demons visited Newark, so look for another high output from them today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +67.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.