Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks/Toronto Raptors Over 231.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TSN
The Knicks just fly over totals like this against seemingly any opponent with a pulse, and that’s actually what Toronto has been showing lately. The Raptors have some impressive wins the past few weeks, and the offense is showing improvement that they’ll certainly need tonight. Their offense is built almost entirely around two-point scoring as they attempt and make the second-fewest three’s in the league. That’s a recipe for consistent scoring to help reach this total, especially with New York missing their best defender in OG Anunoby tonight. With the Knicks still owning a top-5 offense by almost every measure, they should carve up what’s still a weak defense and help push this game over the total.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
What if the Celtics really aren’t that good? Everyone is scared of them as the defending champs, and the market gives them a lot of respect based on that fact, but I’m starting to see through this team. All that respect in the market creates difficult numbers for them to cover on a nightly basis, but it’s still inexplicable that a team supposedly this good would have the second-worst ATS record in the league.
So it should be tough for them to go up against the team with the best ATS record, which is Cleveland, and the Cavs are already 2-0 ATS against Boston this season. Both were tight games, which is to be expected, so this game is deservedly lined with a short spread. But a short number like this, with the Celtics on the road against the best of the East, creates a good opportunity to fade what I see as an over-hyped team.
NBA Prop Picks (Odds via DrafKings)
0.25 Unit – Darius Garland Alt Over 7.5 Assists (+135)
1 Unit – Karl-Anthony Towns Over 36.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
1 Unit – Nikola Vucevic Over 19.5 Points (-110)
0.5 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 Points (-110)
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Marquette/St John’s Under 146.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on FS1
This St John’s team is extremely good, a total of 5 points from being undefeated, and the fact that you can get them at +4500 right this minute to win it all is insane. The reason they’re so good is defense, ranked 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency and only allowing 65.2 PPG. Everyone thinks high pace and scoring with Rick Pitino, but the Red Storm are 7-4 under this total in Big East play with one of those going over in overtime.
They do actually play to a relatively fast tempo, especially on offense, but they force opposing offenses into long, drawn-out possessions. It’s the same with Marquette actually, and the Golden Eagles bring their own elite defense to MSG tonight, ranked 16th in adjusted efficiency. Both of these teams are also fairly poor three-point shooting squads, and with the different sightlines at MSG it’s not likely a lot of perimeter looks will be splashing. So in a game for first place in the conference I’m seeing a defensive battle all night, as are metrics sites that project this barely getting to the 140’s.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Oklahoma St @ Houston -12.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Houston is coming off what in hindsight was a loss that had to be coming at some point. The Cougars were riding a wave of luck in the past few weeks that would run out eventually, and it did against a hot Texas Tech squad. But luck will not be a requirement for the Cougars to bounce back and throttle arguably the worst team in the conference, especially since they’ve already done it once this season.
This matchup produced a 10-point margin for Houston at halftime when they played in Stillwater, and the Coogs were not performing offensively like they are now. Putting them back in the Fertitta Center where they have the country’s best average first half margin, in a game where they’re looking to get right again, is enough for me to expect plenty of improvement on their defeat of the Cowboys earlier in the season. OK State does not have the offense to compete against this Cougar defense, and their reliance on free throws will not play out in Houston’s building, so I think things get ugly early tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Boise St @ UNLV +3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on CBSSN
This season has gone horribly for UNLV, but the Rebels are not far from looking much better than their current record shows. Their 11-11 record has 7 losses that were 2-possession games, with 3 of those by a single bucket, so bounces have not gone their way. I guess that’s life in Vegas, but tonight’s game offers them a chance for revenge and I think the number has gotten a little out of hand.
Boise thrashed UNLV in the previous meeting, but that was a home game for the Broncos where they’re far different from their road version. Their only two road wins the entire season came against Mountain West bottom-feeders, and even those were close. The Broncos are extremely reliant on two-point scoring, but their percentage drops over 6 points on the road, and they face a UNLV defense that’s excellent at limiting interior production. This should be a slow-paced grind, and with the number of close games both teams have been in this season, another seems likely here so I’ll take the points.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +70.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.