Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-Boston
The Celtics have been through a lot lately, from a ton of injury issues to their insane collapse against Cleveland. They’ve been resilient though, and this homestand has brought back an old reliable trend of theirs that is very actionable today. That’s this first half isolated team total, which was a gold mine last season but hasn’t been the same this year until recently.
This current homestand has seen the Celtics average 64.6 first half points per game, and that’s while battling those injuries and some high-level competition. They will not face high-level competition tonight with Utah in town, and the Jazz are on no rest with travel here, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. This Jazz squad is in full tank mode, own the worst defensive efficiency mark in the league, and this 3-game road trip so far has seen them give up 61.3 first half points to woeful competition. The Celtics love to step on teams like this early, and I think they fly through this team total.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Memphis Grizzlies First Quarter Over 59 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
I’m banking on remarkable consistency to continue in this game, as these teams just love to start the scoring early against each other. In their 3 meetings this season, the Suns and Grizzlies have notched 62, 62, and 65 points in the opening quarter. That’s not surprising given Memphis is 3rd and Phoenix 9th in first quarter scoring, with the Grizzlies 1st in scoring at home.
But Memphis can’t stop anything early either, ranked 26th in first quarter points allowed at home, and the Suns have more than enough firepower to take advantage. With both teams on no rest with travel, where they both have positive records to the over, I’m expecting the trends to hold and a high-scoring first quarter to ensue tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets @ OKC Thunder -8.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV
The battle of MVP frontrunners yesterday was living up to the hype until Nikola Jokic hurt his elbow. The entire game changed from that point and the Thunder did their typical pull away late routine to turn it into a rout. I’m not buying for one minute that Jokic can shake off that injury overnight and return to his usual form, while also dealing with the effects of his ankle injury from last week. It wouldn’t be unheard of for him to sit out this rematch, and the way this line is moving there’s some indication that he might do exactly that. Without the Joker this is a Thunder blowout, and with a half-strength Joker it’s a double-digit margin in my opinion so I’ll lay the points here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Wofford/Furman Over 136.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
This total is moving in the wrong direction if these teams are going to keep shooting the way they have in this SoCon tournament so far. Three’s are what these teams live on, as Furman is 15th and Wofford 32nd in the country for attempts per game, and they’ve both been wet from long range in this tournament. Wofford has shot a very impressive 41.1% while Furman has been ridiculous at 50.9% in their two games. These teams also got to 143 and 153 points in the regular season while alternating poor shooting performances from deep.
So it’s safe to say they’ve both found the range at Harrah’s Center, and that efficiency from deep will be key to getting this game over the total. Neither team plays particularly fast, so capitalizing on limited possessions with three’s is the path here, and fortunately both defenses are also vulnerable to the long ball. This is also a tightly-lined game where only one team will hear their name on Sunday, so desperation fouls should add plenty of late points and overtime would not be unheard of, and that will push this one over the low number.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+135; Odds via Caesars)
Charleston vs UNC Wilmington (-180): 7:30 PM CT on CBSSN
I have next to no faith in this Charleston team outside of their own arena. The Cougars just don’t bring their shooting on the road with them, as their effective field goal rate drops 6.2 percentage points and their three-point percentage falls 11.3%. That’s the biggest key for them given their style of play, and Wilmington’s vulnerability to the three which the Cougars won’t be able to exploit.
That was the case in the meeting at Wilmington this season when Charleston shot 25% from deep and were run out by 20 points. Wilmington also won on the road to take both regular season meetings, and I think the woeful shooting by Charleston dooms them to getting swept.
Idaho vs Portland St (-195): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Portland State holds a significant advantage in this game that should be even more pronounced in the neutral court environment. Idaho is a very high volume three-point offense, but Portland State defends the three very well. They really limited the Vandals in both meetings that they won comfortably, and should again as Idaho will have to adjust to the shooting sightlines in an unfamiliar environment.
Any kind of slow start will doom Idaho here as Portland State should not have trouble getting going offensively. The Vikings live on the interior, ranking 10th nationally in the percentage of points they get inside the arc. They’ve had no problem scoring on an Idaho defense that’s 349th in adjusted efficiency and 323rd in two-point percentage allowed. I think Portland State pulls ahead right away and doesn’t look back to advance and close this parlay.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +69.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
