Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Siena/Rider First Half Under 64.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+
All season I’ve been following the home/road splits for this Siena offense, and this is one last chance to capitalize. The Saints see a 10.5 point drop in scoring away from home, along with significant decreases across the board in other offensive metrics, and this neutral site might make things even worse for them. Siena is not a good shooting team in general, just 260th in effective field goal rate, and rely heavily on getting to the free throw line for their points.
But their opponent today, Rider, has one of the lowest foul rates in the country and is 16th nationally in allowing free throw production. Cut off that part of Siena’s offense and points will be difficult to come by here, especially with Rider also being a poor offensive team. The Broncs are 285th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 316th in effective field goal rate, and just like Siena they play at a slow tempo. This being a conference tournament game, if I’m taking an under I want to avoid late-game craziness, so look for a slow start here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Delaware/UNC Wilmington Over 148 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Delaware upsetting another team to win the Coastal would be one of the maddest March Madness storylines possible. This team had no business winning two games in the conference tournament much less four, but these past four days have to be taking a toll on them. I just don’t know what kind of legs are left for a team that plays at a ridiculous tempo like the Blue Hens do, and I think it impacts what is already an awful defense at 331st in adjusted efficiency.
Wilmington has the offense to take advantage, and would be wise to turn up their own pace and further tire out Delaware here. What I like about this game the most is that Delaware will be playing with nothing to lose, and should stay true to their offensive style of fast pace and great three-point shooting that got them here. Three-point defense is a major weakness for the Seahawks, so I would expect Delaware to contribute more than they did in the regular season meetings that both stayed under this total. The foul game should also start early with a ticket to the dance on the line, and with metrics projections in the high 150’s I’m liking the over on this number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St Mary’s +4 vs Gonzaga (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
After dispatching upstart Pepperdine with ease last night for a warmup, St Mary’s looks to cement themselves as the new kings of the WCC. The Gaels have to be feeling disrespected today as the oddsmakers down the street from Orleans Arena are making them a sizable underdog to a team they’ve already beaten twice. This is just not your typical Gonzaga team, despite an elite metrics profile, as the Bulldogs just aren’t winning the kinds of games they always have in the past.
I think that continues tonight against a St Mary’s team that finally has the size, length, and shooting needed to compete with the Zags. Defense will always reign for the Gaels, and their ability to clog the interior with size, owning the 12th-best two-point percentage defense in the country, is a big key against a Gonzaga team that is no longer a perimeter-oriented team. St Mary’s has been dominant in the conference all season and won at The Kennel, so getting more than a possession of points here is too good to pass up.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +68.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
