Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Denver Nuggets First Quarter Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
This total is comically low in my opinion. I’ve been wrong before, but I’m willing to bet pretty significantly that I’m not because I’ve seen too much of how these teams operate. It should be no secret at this point that Denver’s home games have wild first quarters, since they lead the league in first quarter points and are dead last in points allowed. Books should adjust more for that but they don’t, since big differences in derivative markets throws off the overall side and total numbers.
So this kind of number has natural value to it any time the Nuggets take the floor at home, and with the way the Wolves have been playing lately I think it adds even more value. While Minnesota has one of the better first quarter defenses and are below average in scoring, a lot of that is due to the early portion of the season. They’ve changed quite a bit the past couple of months, especially against teams that like to play fast early like Denver does. These offenses are too good right now, and with the two meetings at Target Center seeing 62 and 71 first quarter points, this one should get well over tonight’s total.
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder/Boston Celtics Over 228 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
If these teams are hitting three’s, there might not be a reasonable upper limit to what the offenses can put forth tonight. Boston’s propensity for three-point shooting is no secret, as they live on the perimeter, and I think they’ll have success against a Thunder team that’s 21st in defensive rating since the All-Star break.
That’s a big departure from the elite defense we saw early in the season, and has sent OKC on an 8-3 over run. Even if the Celtics are missing Jayson Tatum and/or Jaylen Brown tonight, which is holding this total down, I think there’s a sneaky angle to plenty of points. Those absences would just increase the minutes and usage of their better three-point shooters, so if even a decent percentage of three’s are splashing tonight this one will fly over.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Butler/Providence Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on Peacock
Along with most metrics projections, I’m seeing this game in the 150’s at minimum. These teams have all kinds of offensive firepower, especially with key players back, which could turn this game into a shootout. The three’s should be flying, and dropping, in a game where both teams love to fire away from deep and are very good at it.
The two regular season meetings saw a high volume of three-point attempts, with both teams being red-hot in the game that got to 163 points. The other fell on 149 due to Butler being cold and missing several key contributors, but since they got healthy the Bulldogs have been excellent offensively. Neither team can stop much though, so as long as the sightlines in MSG don’t mess too much with the shooters here, I think this gets well over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Air Force @ UNLV -13 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MW Network
UNLV getting to play the conference tournament on their home floor makes a huge difference for a team that desperately needs statement wins. I think they get one to kick off the Mountain West tournament against a pitiful opponent that they’ve dominated this season. Air Force didn’t have much of a chance against anyone this season as the Falcons went 5-15 ATS in conference play, including 0-2 against UNLV. The meeting in Vegas saw a closing spread of 13.5 points, which was never in doubt as the Rebels rolled by 25. Now they have to play what is effectively another true road game and the number has come down, which makes little sense to me. I think UNLV takes this game very seriously and runs out the Falcons once more.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) USC/Rutgers Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on Peacock
If you want a deep, dark, longshot sleeper for the Big10 tournament, you could do a lot worse than this Rutgers team, even though they play no defense. Their defensive issues will be on display again tonight in what should be a fast-paced game against another team that struggles on that end of the floor. USC allowed 81.0 PPG in conference games away from home this season, which includes 95 to Rutgers just a few weeks ago.
But the Scarlet Knights gave up 85 themselves in that game, which used to be unheard of for Rutgers home games, and their defense allows 12.9 points more per game when it leaves home. Both of these teams want to get up and down the floor, attack the basket, and get to the free throw line, all of which are things the opposing defense can’t stop. Easy points like that are key in a neutral court environment, so look for another high-scoring affair here and another over for the Trojans who have the second-most in the country.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Utah Tech/Utah Valley Over 143.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This Utah Valley team is very good, and I think they have another strong night on offense against their in-state rival. The Wolverines have a significant advantage over Utah Tech, whose interior defense is one of the worst in the country. Tech can guard the three, but allow the 29th-highest split of points via the two in the country, which is exactly where Valley wants to attack.
That was the story in the regular season meetings, along with the Wolverines getting to the free throw line which is their other specialty, aided by the country’s 19th-most foul prone defense. This being a conference tournament game, fouls and free throws play a big role, so Valley will be able to add a lot to this total that way. But the Wolverines are a little vulnerable to the three and the Trailblazers will be firing away all game with nothing to lose here, so I like this game to sneak over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Cal Poly Team Total Under 77.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN+
It’s very difficult to slow down Cal Poly, as the Mustangs play at the country’s 2nd-fastest adjusted tempo with the shortest offensive possession length. But if you can’t slow them down, the next best thing is to disrupt them and force mistakes, which is exactly what UC Davis is well-suited to do.
A byproduct of that insane tempo is mistakes, and Poly makes a ton of them at 349th in turnover rate. That sloppy play is capitalized on by a Davis team that is 14th nationally in forcing turnovers, and wreaked havoc on Poly in both meetings this season.
Those games saw the Mustangs turn it over a combined 53 times which is just ridiculously sloppy basketball, and the result was just 66 and 54 points out of one of the highest-flying offenses in the country. If the Aggies can continue to disrupt that offense, along with some shooting difficulties for Poly’s high three-point volume on a neutral court, I don’t see the Mustangs reaching this kind of number tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +67.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
