Locks
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Duke -13 First Half vs Georgia Tech (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN
My suspicion in this ACC tournament is that Duke continues to take its weak competition out in body bags. That should start with Georgia Tech here, who the Blue Devils already beat early in the league year by 26 on the road. And that was before Duke really got rolling and showed the form that they’re in right now.
Tech is going to play at a faster pace here, speeding up Duke and giving more possessions to that lethal offense. That should bury the Yellowjackets under a barrage of three’s as they’re 285th in three-point percentage defense and allow the 41st-highest split of points to be score beyond the arc. Duke shot 40% from deep in the first meeting where they put up 41 first half points, and remember, all the Blue Devils have done since is get stronger. The incredible thing with Duke is they’re a great cover team at 21-10 ATS overall, and do it against inflated numbers, so keep backing them with confidence.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Davidson/St Louis First Half Under 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on USA
I’m really liking leveraging the country’s best under team against what feels like an inflated total. These teams only met once this season, but they didn’t get anywhere near this level of scoring with just 113 points in a defensive slog. While St Louis has the potential for offense as an excellent shooting team that takes a lot of three’s, their games just don’t play out that way and the result is a 21-8 record to the under, tied for the nation’s best. I think that shooting takes at least a little while to get on track at a neutral site like this, especially against a slow-paced team like Davidson. Another big key here is neither team gets to the free throw line, so those easy points aren’t coming and this first half should stay under.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) North Carolina -2.5 First Half vs Wake Forest (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on ESPN
North Carolina is understanding their assignment, as the Tar Heels are considered right on the tipping point of the bubble coming into the ACC tournament. They responded with a blowout win over Notre Dame yesterday, part of a series of lopsided wins that got them back into the Big Dance conversation. I think that continues here as they get a chance for revenge against Wake Forest, a loss that happened before they turned it on down the stretch.
I especially think it continues early on, as UNC has shown to be great at getting out to fast starts in this run to close the season. The past 8 games have seen the Heels average 46.0 first half points which created a plus-12.4 average first half margin in those games. That shows me they’re locked in, and they also have the advantage of a game under their belt compared to a Wake team that had a bye yesterday. If UNC decides to flex their interior muscle and play downhill again, Wake’s weak interior defense will get shredded, and the Heels will have another impressive start today.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Diego St +1.5 vs Boise St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on CBSSN
You can go back years and years, to the Kawhi Leonard days even, to see the dominance San Diego State has displayed in the Mountain West tournament. This might as well be their home floor, and I think they have another strong opening round performance today. They own this Boise State team, beating them handily on the road this season and absolutely stomping them in San Diego.
The Broncos are also not a strong team away from home, just 5-8 ATS and seeing massive drops in their offensive numbers when they’ve left Boise this season. This number has been bouncing back and forth through zero, but I’ll boldly say the wrong team might be favored here and will take the points with a quietly excellent Aztecs squad.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Morgan St/Howard Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+
These teams are not going to change who they are just because we’ve gotten to the first round of the MEAC tournament. Both Morgan State and Howard want to get up and down the floor in a big hurry, and they don’t have any interest in stopping the other from doing it. That’s why the regular season meetings got to 195 and 168 points with neither team doing much damage from three.
That’s not how they play, as both are transition offenses that get to the hoop and draw fouls. These are two defenses ranked 344th and 357th in adjusted efficiency, give up incredible amounts of points at the rim, and commit fouls like crazy. That’s a great recipe for points in a conference tournament game that is likely to be close down the stretch, so it should get over this high total again.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Mississippi St/Missouri Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network
These are two of the SEC teams where you want to target their defenses, and that should create plenty of points tonight. You wouldn’t know it by some of the defensive metrics out there, but these teams haven’t stopped much all season and certainly not coming into the SEC tournament. Missouri has allowed 5 of its past 6 opponents to easily get into the 90’s against them, and the 6th was South Carolina so that barely counts.
Mississippi State hasn’t been much better, with their past 5 games seeing them allow 87 or more to anyone not named LSU. But both offenses are also on fire, and won’t be stopped by these struggling defenses here. Both want to play fast, both are top-20 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Mizzou can shoot the lights out. This is almost guaranteed to be a foul-fest in the late stages, but that might just be icing on the over cake tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) USC/Purdue First Half Over 70.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on BTN
Purdue would be wise to push tempo here and exploit the tired legs of a USC team that’s experiencing the three hour time difference and had to go to double overtime last night. It’s not like the Trojans can defend much anyway, as their poor defense was one of my targets yesterday. Purdue’s shooting can definitely torch them again, just like they did in dropping 48 first half points in the first meeting. But the Boilermakers are still struggling with interior defense, and a USC offense built to attack inside should find success. I think this will be an up-tempo start with high level shot-making, and that should get the first half over this number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +67.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
