Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics -8 @ Miami Heat (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV
There is a lot of speculation around the status of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White for this game, but the line was set and is moving in a way that suggests at least some good news for Boston on the health front. The way Miami is playing right now, in full collapse mode with 6 wins their past 20 games, it might not matter how many stars Boston is able to have play tonight.
Shorthanded Celtics teams have run the Heat out in both prior meetings this season by 19 and 18 points, so they can crush Miami with a less than ideal roster. What I think matters most here is that Boston is off a tough loss to OKC on Wednesday, and nobody bounces back better than they do. The Celtics are 16-2 straight up after a loss with a plus-19.1 margin of victory, along with going 14-4 ATS and covering by 8.6 points on average. Those last three lead the league by a wide margin, and I think they add to it tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Ole Miss/Auburn Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN
It’s an unscientific hunch, but I really don’t think Auburn enjoyed losing two games to close the season, including one on their home floor to Alabama. If that’s not sitting right with them, then having 6 days to get ready for a team they’ve dropped 92 and 106 points on this season should have them ready to roll. I’m tempted to lay it with the Tigers since they could turn this into a laugher, but I think points are coming whether it’s a blowout or not.
Obviously Auburn has the firepower to put up big numbers on this Ole Miss squad, especially if they look to take advantage of a leaky perimeter defense. But it’s on the perimeter where I think Auburn might struggle a little bit defensively themselves, as they’ve had injuries to their best perimeter defenders Denver Jones and Chad Baker-Mazara cause problems in those two losses. Both teams really take care of the ball, so offenses that are 1st and 25th in adjusted efficiency should have plenty of success today.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) North Carolina +7.5 vs Duke (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
What a sad state of affairs for a Duke team that had everything going. Injuries to Cooper Flagg and Malik Brown really make things tough on them, and have to be a shock to the system, especially in a one-day turnaround situation. That makes me believe that this highly motivated UNC team has an opportunity to steal a key win, and they’ll make the most of it by at least keeping this competitive. With the way ACC games have been coming down to the wire, getting more than two possessions of points is key, and I’ll take it with the Tar Heels tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) BYU/Houston Over 135.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Maybe points are easier to score when you play the games on top of a Louis Vuitton bag. Whatever the reason, points are flying in Kansas City as Big12 tournament games went nuclear yesterday including some eye-popping first half scores. Even though we have one of the best defensive teams in the country in action here, I’m pretty convinced points are still coming.
The main reason is this BYU offense that is red hot, making 18 three’s against my Cyclones in yesterday’s thriller to shoot 50% from deep. Houston will key on that defensively, but three-point defense is their one weakness as they’re allowing the 49th-highest split of points to be scored from long range. But UH is elite from deep themselves, ranked 2nd in three-point percentage and relying on the three much more this season. If this turns into a three-point contest then this total that is taking sharp money will get cleared easily.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Mount St Mary’s +6.5 vs Merrimack (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ESPNNEWS
I’m just not buying this number, or the fact that it has grown to this point. Mount St Mary’s has proven they’re the better team in this matchup, beating Merrimack on the road by 10 in the regular season meeting where they were catching 9.5 points. The biggest statistical advantage for Merrimack even played out in that game as they forced a turnover-prone Mountaineers team into 19 giveaways, but it still didn’t matter. If Mount St Mary’s can limit three-point production, then the slow pace of this game and semifinal stakes should keep it naturally close, and catching two full possessions is good value in my opinion.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue -2.5 vs Michigan (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on BTN
I’m fading Michigan at every opportunity I can to close the season, which I think will be all of two more times including tonight. This collapse down the stretch by the Wolverines has been awful, and now it’s in their heads. Michigan coming into this game cold while Purdue had a chance to get rolling last night gives the Boilermakers an advantage in my opinion, as it gives Purdue the confidence boost they’ll need here.
The return of Boilers big man Will Berg to get key minutes last night is also important against the twin towers of Vlad Golden and Danny Wolf, so there’s hope for Purdue’s weak interior defense after all. Purdue was clearly the better team in both meetings this season, with the Wolverines pulling off a miracle win on their home floor. But on a neutral court with Michigan in their own heads, I’ll take an experienced Purdue team to get the narrow win.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Cal Poly/UC Irvine Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN2
Just don’t take any unders in a Cal Poly game, a lesson I learned the hard way the other night. This team sets games on fire instantly, with a prime example being last night where they and Riverside had 21 combined points a quarter into the game and finished with 179. It’s their insane pace and volume three-point shooting, both of which I think factor heavily into tonight’s game.
Irvine has made a living on defense all season, but it hasn’t been as strong down the stretch and they’re vulnerable to the three. Caly Poly has the range at this neutral site after two games, and should continue splashing three-balls tonight, but also won’t stop anything. Irvine scored 98 in overtime and 101 in regulation on Poly this season, and aren’t afraid to play up-tempo or in transition when Poly inevitably turns it over. So follow the rule for probably the last chance this season and take the over with Poly involved.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +67.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
