Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder/Detroit Pistons Over 234.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit
The Pistons are a great story this season, but I still worry about their defense. They’ve been exposed against high-level offenses, especially those that come from the Western Conference, with recent examples being the Nuggets and Warriors combining for 249 points against them the past couple of weeks. They also just gave up 129 to a pitiful Wizards squad, which is inexcusable and shows the cracks that OKC is sure to exploit. The Thunder have been a great over bet recently as their defense has struggled since the All-Star break while the offense rolls over just about everyone. That should be the case again tonight as this total gets cleared.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
After some struggles, this Memphis team is finally getting back in the win column, last night’s loss to the unstoppable Cavaliers notwithstanding. But that should motivate them here to bounce back against a team that continues to crater, and get the Grizzlies back in the cover column. Miami has fallen apart, and comes into this game with the league’s second-worst road ATS record at 12-20-1 on the year. The Grizzlies have been solid at home, and are great off a loss at 15-9 ATS. Remember that Miami is playing on no rest with travel here after Boston handled them last night, so I’m continuing to fade a bad Heat team.
NBA (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans Team Total Over 121 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on Gulf Coast Sports
Without Wemby, this Spurs defense can’t stop a parked car. It’s gotten laughable, and it won’t get any better tonight. Since the calendar flipped to March, San Antonio is allowing an incredible 131.1 points per game and their opponents are 6-2 over this massive team total. The only teams who didn’t get there were the pathetic offenses of Brooklyn and Dallas, who still managed to put up 113 and 116 on this trainwreck of a defense. The low point might be allowing 145 to Charlotte last night, and putting this bad, shorthanded defense on no rest should make for an easy night for the Pelicans offense.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+120; Odds via DraftKings)
Tennessee vs Auburn (-205): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN
It’s March, this is a big game, and Rick Barnes is on the sideline. That in itself should be enough to want to back the freight train that is Auburn, but the matchup advantages for the Tigers go even deeper. This will be strength versus strength as the country’s most efficient offense takes on the 3rd-most efficient defense with the best effective field goal rate allowed.
But it’s the offense for Tennessee that inevitably gets them in trouble for games like this in March, as the Vols just aren’t going to outscore anyone or keep up with an elite offense. Tennessee kept it close in the regular season, but Johni Broome was playing his first game off a serious ankle injury. Auburn didn’t seem to take yesterday’s game very seriously and had some rust, but that should change today as they pull away from the Vols here.
Michigan vs Maryland (-205): 2:30 PM CT on CBS
What Maryland did to Illinois yesterday was probably a lot to do with bad defense from the Illini, but it shows what the Terrapins are capable of. This team is sneaky elite, with a starting five that can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the country but really doesn’t get much out of their bench. It’s March though, and tournament basketball means shorter rotations and more production out of that excellent group of starters, which is what we saw in the first half last night. I think they keep it rolling today behind their elite defense that already shut down the Wolverines in Ann Arbor just 10 days ago. It might be a close one again though, so I’ll just ask the Terps to win and close this parlay.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Alabama/Florida Over 174.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN
The stakes are very high for both teams in this game, especially Florida who really appears to want that SEC title. But you just can’t put two offenses like this that are 3rd and 4th in adjusted efficiency on the same floor and not expect the game to be played in the 80’s at minimum. These squads have been getting into wild shootouts not just this season, but the past several years as their last 5 meetings have averaged 186.4 points.
And Florida has won the past 3 meetings with outputs of 99, 102, and 105 points so Todd Golden knows how to attack this weak Alabama defense. These teams didn’t need much time to acclimate to the neutral court, scoring 99 and 95 points in their wins yesterday, which may have only been an appetizer for today’s shootout.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Colorado St +1.5 vs Boise St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on CBS
It’s tough to beat a good team three times, there’s no doubt about that, and it’s what Colorado State is up against today after sweeping the regular season series. But the way the Rams are playing right now cannot be ignored, and I think they’re a bad matchup for Boise. The way the Broncos want to play is by getting to the rim and drawing fouls, but the CSU defense is too quick and athletic, especially at the guard spots, and has kept Boise off their game in both meetings. The Rams also have the best player on the floor by a wide margin with Nique Clifford, who’s about to make a name for himself. What CSU has done to close the season knowing their bubble hopes were thin has been extremely impressive, and with an auto-bid in their grasp here I don’t think they let it slip away.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +67.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
