Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Kansas City Royals Team Total Over 4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network
I don’t think I’m alone in wondering when the Royals lineup is going to wake up. Kansas City should be a much better team at the plate than they’ve been, only clearing this team total twice on the entire season so far. But what better time than now against Carlos Carrasco, who is hanging on in the majors by a thread.
The Yankees righty wouldn’t be on the team without the devastating injuries they suffered to the rotation this spring, and things haven’t gone great through 3 starts with a 7.71 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Importantly, all of the opposing teams cleared this team total in his starts, so the combination of Carrasco’s struggles and a mediocre bullpen should allow the Royals to get the bats on track tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers/Milwaukee Brewers First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI
A total this low means elite pitching, and you’re definitely getting that from one starter tonight. Tarik Skubal looks to be back on track after dominating the Yankees his last time out, and should be able to hold down a Brewers lineup that has struggled against standard lefthanded pitching. There’s nothing standard about Skubal when he’s on, so I expect very little if anything from the Milwaukee bats against him. But the Tigers are also weak against lefties, and Tyler Alexander getting another spot start should keep the Detroit bats quiet as well. These teams have actually scored pretty well in the first five innings so far this season, but this should be an exception so I’m liking the early under.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
Something is not right with the Dodgers offense, having only scored 5 total runs over the weekend against the suspect Cubs pitching staff. What better way to get back on track than to face Colorado’s pitching, and I think Mookie leads the way tonight. The Dodger shortstop hasn’t gotten over this number in 6 straight games, but was crushing the ball to start the season at home. And he owns Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela, compiling career numbers of a .450 average and 1.350 OPS with 4 extra base hits against the Colorado righty. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Betts take care of this prop total in his first at-bat, so I’m taking a shot at this juicy return tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 7-12 (-2.6 Units) – Recommend: Fade Hard
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
