Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies @ OKC Thunder -13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ABC
It’s really simple, this matchup has not been close at all this season. The Thunder have blown out the Grizzlies by no less than 13 points across all four meetings, including winning both games in OKC by 20-plus. That’s an easy way to go 4-0 ATS in the season series as well, which is something I see carrying over into the playoffs. The Thunder are the best ATS team from this season, and have the potential to stay that way on a run through the Western Conference. I think that starts here as they look to remind everyone that they are the squad to beat this season despite all the conversations being about other teams.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 First Quarter (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on TNT
Sometimes I feel stupidly stubborn about backing Cleveland in the first quarter at home, but I can’t get away from trusting the numbers. They lead the league this season with a plus-5.5 average first quarter margin in home games, exceeding the next best margin by 0.8 points per game. They also happened to cover this first quarter number in all three meetings with Miami this season, so I’m expecting a fourth. The Heat are always sneaky in Game 1’s under Erik Spoelstra, but the excitement in Rocket Arena for the Cavs being the top seed should boost them to another strong start.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Chicago Cubs Over 7 (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 1:20 PM CT on Marquee
Wind blowing out, wind blowing in, it doesn’t seem to bother these two teams despite it being Wrigley Field’s most important factor. It was blowing in yesterday with much better starting pitchers going, and these teams still got over this number. They haven’t gone under it in any of the 6 meetings they’ve already had this season, and if these starters get longer exposure because of tired bullpens, runs should be easy to come by again. These are two elite offenses who only need to put up 3 runs apiece to guarantee a push on this bet, so I think it’s gotten far too low to not jump on.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Washington Nationals/Colorado Rockies Game 2 Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on MASN
The wind is not blowing out at Coors Field either, but that’s holding the total down too much for this poor pitching matchup. Generally when you get weak starting pitchers going at Coors you’ll see a total more in the 12 runs range, so this is a big discount in my experience. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela always seems to have issues at home, and this season is no different as he got roughed up in his lone home start by a weaker offense than the Nationals have.
But Washington starter Brad Lord, despite pitching on Easter, is not ready for the majors yet or the effect of Coors Field. I expect both starters to get hit hard here, and bullpens to have already worked in the first game of the doubleheader, so that spells an over in this one.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 8-14 (-4.3 Units) – Recommend: Tread Carefully
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
