Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Jalen Brunson Over 28.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
The simple fact of the matter is that Detroit doesn’t have a point defender they’re able to put on Jalen Brunson, so he tends to go wild against them. Saturday’s 34-point showing was just a continuation of what Brunson did to the Pistons this season, as he’s now averaging 29.4 PPG across all meetings with them this season. It’s the playoffs, so starters get more minutes, stars are leaned on more by their team, and I think Brunson delivers another big night offensively here.
NBA (1 Unit) LA Clippers First Quarter Team Total Over 26.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
I’m staying with this play as long as the Nuggets are hosting playoff games, period. Saturday’s game saw the Clippers do a lot of dumb stuff, but it all started after they erupted in the first quarter for 35 points. LA managed to have 18 of their 20 turnovers come after the first quarter, and the Nuggets are not a defense known for forcing turnovers. So I expect the Clippers to clean that up, along with continue to shoot it well against a weak defense. I’m convinced that LA has an elite offense in them with Kawhi Leonard healthy, and a repeat of Saturday’s opening frame should be in the works here.
MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres ML @ Detroit Tigers (+110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on FS1
I get that the Tigers are leading the division and have been impressive at home, but this is a step up in weight class that they’ve proven they aren’t ready for. The Padres are so far the best team in the crazy NL West, and the Tigers have already gone 0-3 against the Dodgers this season. San Diego also sends out a far better starting pitcher here with Randy Vasquez, who has shut down every lineup he’s faced, including some very powerful ones.
Detroit for all its progress still has a weak offense, so I see Vasquez and the league’s best bullpen keeping the Tigers bats quiet tonight. If that happens, it won’t be difficult for the Padres to pull in front against Detroit starter Keider Montero, so I like the Padres to get the win and love the short dog price.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-15 (-3.45 Units) – Recommend: Be Very Careful
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
