Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies @ OKC Thunder -14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
Very little has been consistent in the NBA down the stretch of the season and into the postseason. But one thing I’m very sure of is the gulf between these two teams, both on a talent level and stylistically, which should help create another blowout tonight.
After a 51-point win on Sunday, an adjustment in the line of just a couple points isn’t going to cut it, especially not in OKC with the Thunder looking to make statements. You could tell the team was upset about the NBA award finalists not including Lu Dort for DPOY, so expect a maximum defensive effort in this game. And with OKC’s ability to go on runs it’s easy to pull away and win by margin, which they’ve now done in all 5 meetings with Memphis this season.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/LA Lakers First Quarter Under 52 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
This is a low number, but it’s how these teams have played consistently throughout the season. They’re averaging just 48.2 first quarter points per game across all 5 meetings including Saturday, with a 4-1 mark under this total. Adding Luka Doncic’s offensive talents to the mix hasn’t changed much either, with the first quarter of the two games featuring him going for 49 and 50 points. These teams have been playing hard-nosed playoff style basketball all season against each other, and I expect that to only ramp up in intensity tonight so look for a slow start here.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
After Luka dropped 37 on Saturday, you knew this number was going to get adjusted upwards. But the signs are there that he’s going to keep putting up that kind of scoring production throughout this series. Doncic shot it extremely well in Game 1, so the Lakers are not going to go away from the hot hand who knows how to score against this Wolves team. And with his rebounding and assist numbers very low on Saturday, it’s clear he’s focused on scoring and should get over this number again tonight.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Miami Marlins Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL
The cavernous ballpark in Miami is usually where overs go to die, but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Marlins have seen their home games go 10-4 to the over this season, helping them to the second-best over record in the league so far. Cincinnati is also 7-4 to the over on the road this season, so the combination of those trends and tonight’s pitching matchup should create another one.
I see Reds starter Nick Martinez continuing to struggle here, as he’s been very consistent in allowing plenty of runs in every start despite not pitching deep into games or facing tough offenses. Miami’s offense is nothing elite, but they’ve been a big factor in that over record and can jump on a bad pitcher. Meanwhile, Edward Cabrera has also struggled and doesn’t go deep into games either, leaving a bad Miami bullpen exposed. These teams are a combined 10-0 over this total in their past 5 games each, and this total should be 9 so I’m on the over again here.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals First 5 Innings ML (+105; Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on MASN
This is a kind of ridiculous case of the Orioles trading solely on name recognition against what is supposed to be a bad Nationals team. But Baltimore has really disappointed so far this season, and their biggest weakness is about to get even more exposed tonight. They can’t hit lefthanded pitching, ranking 29th in batting average and OPS, plus 28th in weighted runs created against lefties.
They’ll face a tough one tonight in Mitchell Parker who has been fantastic to start the season, and should really limit the O’s offense here. If the Nats can get a run or two off Dean Kremer who already has a couple blowup starts under his belt this season, they can find themselves with a lead after 5 innings, and cash this bet that avoids bullpen hijinks.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-15 (-3.4 Units) – Recommend: Be Very Careful
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
