Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Miami Heat Over 213 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on TNT
I just don’t know what the market is watching when these teams get together. This total opened lower than the first two of the series and took under money, which makes little to no sense. All five meetings throughout the season have gone well over this total, and the only one that cashed under tickets was a 112-107 Cavs win where Tyler Herro didn’t play.
If you’re going to tell me that the Heat play better defense at home, then I’ll counter with the fact that the highest-scoring meeting of all this year was the lone game they’ve played in Miami. I think the playoff environment adjustment for totals has gotten out of hand with this matchup, and I’ll take the discounted over.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Tyler Herro Alt Made 3’s Over 3.5 (+140; Odds via DraftKings)
Herro has not been shy in this series as essentially Miami’s only true offensive weapon. His shot volume is high, his three-point attempts are high, he’s back home where he shoots better, and in four games against Cleveland this season he’s 3-1 over this total. So getting the juicy return on an alt number instead of laying heavy juice on the standard one is how I want to play this.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets/LA Clippers First Quarter Over 54.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on TNT
The Nuggets should be fairly desperate here, and even more desperate if they lose, but I don’t think that makes them suddenly able to defend against this Clippers offense. Denver has trouble guarding much of anything on a normal night, but the way LA has turned it on offensively behind Kawhi Leonard is impressive to watch. It’s been the first quarters where that offense is most on display, for both teams actually as all three games have seen the first quarter be the highest-scoring quarter. I’m not going away from that trend, even with a premium set on this total by the books, so look for another early over tonight.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors Team Total Under 103.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
If you want ugly, playoff basketball featuring hard-nosed defense, then you’ve come to the right place with this game. This should be a grind, and I’m just not seeing how the Warriors manage to do anything special on offense. With Jimmy Butler expected to miss this game, the Golden State offense takes a massive step backwards, and it’s been tough enough for them to solve the Houston defense already.
The Warriors have only averaged 99.7 points per game against the Rockets this season in seven meetings, and 97.5 in the four games since Jimmy Butler was acquired. The Rockets defense is for real, and that’s the one thing that travels in the playoffs, so I’m expecting a grind of a game here where the Warriors struggle without one of their stars.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Houston Rockets/Golden State Warriors First Quarter Under 50.5 (-120; Odds via Fanduel)
The starts to games between these teams have been particularly ugly, averaging just 44.3 points and going 6-1 under this total. Don’t discount the Warriors defense either, especially at home where a young Rockets team might start slowly under the bright lights. Four of the seven meetings this season have seen the first quarter fail to get north of 42 points, so I’m expecting another slow start tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Philles @ Chicago Cubs First 5 Innings ML (-105; Odds via BetMGM): 3:05 PM CT on FOX
The Cubs are on an insane run in first five’s. After starting the season in Japan, the Cubbies have now played 25 games on this side of the world and are 18-4-3 in the first five innings of those games. That’s wild, and while it gets tougher here, they have a couple of things going for them. First is how well they hit lefties like Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo, leading MLB in batting average, OPS, and weighted on-base average, along with second in weighted runs created.
They’re also facing a Phillies offense that really struggles early in games, and are 27th in first five innings scoring on the road. Chicago starter Ben Brown has been on fire in his past two starts against elite offenses, so I’m counting on him to further the F5 struggles for Philly today. The Cubs should be getting more love in the market and they’re not, so I’m taking advantage of this price and expect them to lead after five today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-16 (-1.8 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
