Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers Team Total Over 109.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
The Cavaliers are doing whatever they want against the Heat, despite Miami always seeming to ramp up the defense under Erik Spoelstra in the playoffs. It hasn’t mattered all season, it certainly didn’t matter on Saturday, and I don’t think Cleveland will have any trouble offensively tonight.
The Cavs are now averaging 119.5 PPG against the Heat this season, clearing this total in all 6 meetings, and clearing 120 in every playoff game so far. Whether it’s a 1-2-3-Cancun situation for the Heat, or they go with desperation fouls late in this closeout game, there are plenty of paths for the Cavs to clear this number.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Cavaliers -2.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars)
In case Miami takes that 1-2-3-Cancun approach, I want to be backing the Cavs on this shortest of possible numbers. With Darius Garland dealing with an injury issue, I think Cleveland wants as much rest as possible, which means a full effort tonight to sweep Miami and that should start right away in the first quarter.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Houston Rockets/Golden State Warriors First Quarter Under 49.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
Whether Jimmy Butler is back tonight or not, and I think he will not, these teams just play a style that severely limits early scoring. Both teams are more interested in making defensive statements, playing relatively slow-paced basketball, and keeping each other out of transition. That’s how scoring stays low in any game, and it has stayed very low in this series with three straight unders, along with three unders on the first quarter total.
The books have adjusted the full-game totals down considerably, but are leaving this first quarter number fairly aligned with a total that’s hovering around the 200-mark. With how drastically low-scoring some of the first quarters have been between these squads, I like the number here and will take another shot on the under.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Warriors -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
I don’t particularly like this number at more than a full possession, but I do like the Warriors to take a 3-1 series lead here so I’ll lay it cautiously. Houston bouncing back plus the shock of losing Butler cost the Warriors Game 2, but they’ve been clearly the better team. Their experience puts them over the top in this series against the young Rockets, so look for them to take care of business at home tonight.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Dillon Brooks Over 12.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I don’t know, whatever, I threw a dart and it hit Brooks, sue me.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Miami Marlins/LA Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
Unscientifically speaking, my sense is that scoring is down in general across baseball, with a few exceptions. Two of those exceptions are meeting in this game, and I think it creates what seems to be a rare over, although not rare for Miami who leads MLB with an 18-9 record to the over. The Marlins have been sneaky-good at the plate, and as bad as expected on the mound, which is a great recipe for overs.
The Dodgers meanwhile keep mashing everything in sight, even though they were shut down by Paul Skenes in a classic Malinsky Special on Friday. Their lineup should tear Edward Cabrera apart, and after scoring 6-plus runs in four of their past five games, they’re a candidate to clear this total themselves. But Miami always seems to find a way to contribute, so this total should be no problem for these two exceptions to the low-scoring rule of this season so far.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-18 (-3.7 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
