Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves -5 @ Golden State Warriors (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
It’s amazing what can happen when some three’s drop. The struggles from deep for the best teams in the NBA has been the key storyline of the playoffs, and obviously the Wolves have fallen victim to that on multiple occasions. But they don’t need many to fall in order to overwhelm this Warriors team without the greatest shooter of all time.
Golden State all season has tried to defend like crazy while finding a way for Steph Curry to go wild from deep, and now they can only rely on an old Jimmy Butler and below-average role players. Even with home court, that’s not enough against this deep Wolves team that should find a way to roll again tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Golden State Warriors Team Total Under 97.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
I think I mentioned that the greatest shooter of all time isn’t playing? Then memo to bookmakers: the Warriors team total should not climb 2 points from Thursday’s game, regardless of them going back home here. Golden State will likely have no choice but to launch a ton of three’s, but a good Wolves perimeter defense can shut that down and hold them below this total.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Derrick White Over 3.5 Made Three’s (-125; Odds via DraftKings): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
The Celtics are going to start hitting their three’s at some point, it’s just a question of whether it’ll be in time to save their season. I’ll count on it happening at least to some extent here from Derrick White, who has owned the Knicks all season from deep. White shot 54.3% from long range in the regular season meetings, then made 5 and 3 in the first two games of this series. The key though is volume, as he’s led Boston in attempts in both games, so giving a shooter of his ability that many looks should result in enough makes to get over this prop total.
Bonus Prop (0.25 Unit) Derrick White Alt Over 4.5 Made Three’s (+170; Odds via DraftKings)
White has gotten over this number in 3 of the 6 meetings this season, so I’ll go up the ladder a rung with him at this juicy return.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Jayson Tatum Over 10.5 Rebounds (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
Tatum has had a couple of pretty awful shooting performances in the first two games of this series. When that happens, he tends to find other ways to contribute, and cleaning the glass has become that contribution. Tatum never went over this number in the regular season meetings, but totaled 14 and 16 boards the past two games. He will also have to do more in the rebounding department with health concerns for Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford today, so I like this price for him to keep being the Windex man.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Seattle Mariners Team Total Over 4.5 (+130; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on SN1
This Mariners offense is still not getting the respect it deserves. That’s especially the case against righthanded pitching which they’ll see today, as they lead all of baseball in wRC+ against righties this season. That has me thinking Bowden Francis will be in trouble today, as this is his second time seeing Seattle already this year, and actually had his best start of the season against them.
But in the four weeks since, Seattle has taken off at the plate and are a top-5 offense in just about every metric. Having their second crack at Francis while finally hitting well should see the Mariners get to the Toronto righty for some production tonight. And behind Francis is a bullpen that continuously blows leads and lets teams hang around, so the Mariners should be tallying runs all game. This is a bounce back spot for the M’s after a Malinsky Special flop yesterday, and they should return to the form that’s seen them average 6.0 runs over their past 15 games.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-17 (+0.15 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
