Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Derrick White Over 4.5 Made Three’s (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
Well, I guess that’s what the Celtics offense looks like with no Jayson Tatum and a mysteriously ill Kristaps Porzingis. The three-point barrage authored by Derrick White really speaks to Boston’s philosophy overall and their lack of options at the moment, and why go away from it after it kept them from elimination on Wednesday. White splashed 7 from deep in Game 5, his third time going over this total in the series, so with no choice but to give him a ton of volume, I think he gets over again at this attractive price.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Payton Pritchard Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+125; Odds via DraftKings)
Pritchard actually hoisted more three’s than White in that game, and I expect this discount Splash Brothers to keep firing tonight. One of them is going to get over their total, if not both, which at plus-juice returns nets a profit.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 4.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 6:07 PM CT on MLB Network
Yep, the Tigers are good, like legitimately good, and it’s not just their starting pitching. This team can hit, they have excellent numbers against righties like they’ll see tonight, and are on an absolute tear right now. Detroit has scored double-digit runs 6 times already this month, are averaging 6.9 runs per game their past 20 games, and have gone over this total in 13 of those.
They’re top-6 in MLB for scoring, average, OPS, and wOBA against righties like they’ll see tonight in Bowden Francis, who should be easy for them to hit. Francis has been much worse at home this season with a 6.52 ERA, and is due for regression overall with a 6.25 expected ERA. The Tigers aren’t getting enough respect in the market, especially in a favorable situation like this, so I’m jumping on the plus-juice return here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels/LA Dodgers Over 9 (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 9:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports West
This first game of the Freeway Series should come with plenty of fireworks. Those might come primarily from the Dodgers side of things, and the way they’re hitting they might clear this total on their own again. After 19 runs last night and 9 the night before, the Dodgers are locked in and making up for an ugly, embarrassing game on Tuesday night.
There’s no reason that will stop tonight against Jack Kochanowicz since the Dodgers crush righties and he has a 6.33 ERA on the road this season. But Dodgers starter Dustin May has struggled after a strong start this season, and even the Angels should be able to contribute here. I doubt it will take much from them with the Dodgers going off, so this total should be easy to reach.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Freddie Freeman Alt Over 2.5 Total Bases (+170; Odds via DraftKings)
What Freeman is doing to righthanded pitchers this season is probably illegal in a few southern states. He’s compiled a .389 average and 1.185 OPS against righties this season, and is raking in general at home. But he didn’t really get in on the fun of the Dodgers scoring 29 runs the last series, so he’s due for a breakout against this young, outmatched Angels starter. You have to lay juice on Freeman to get over 1.5 total bases, so I’ll go up the ladder for this juicy return and expect a big game from him.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx Team Total Over 84.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION
The last time the Lynx took the floor in a meaningful game, they had the WNBA title “stolen” from them by the officiating, at least in the words of head coach Cheryl Reeve. I tend to believe that this team, which returns all 5 starters and 85.4% of their scoring production from last season, has been stewing over that for 7 months.
That makes it likely they’ll want to make a statement to open the season here, and they shouldn’t have much trouble against a porous Dallas defense. The Wings were very generous to opposing offenses last season, giving up the most points per game in the league. Those defensive issues don’t seem fixed yet as they allowed 112 to Las Vegas in their lone preseason game, so a Lynx squad with an elite offense should score at will, especially with Dallas wanting to play fast and having excellent offensive pieces themselves.
Degenerates
WNBA LA Sparks @ Golden State Valkyries +6.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ION
This spread has been coming down all over the place, and from an objective standpoint that’s a little strange. Golden State, as the league’s first expansion team since 2008, has next to no pieces and should really struggle this season. But let’s put on our tinfoil hats for a moment and consider the situation. The league made a big deal about the Valkyries opening at home and it superseded any potential Wolves/Warriors Game 6, so they’re obviously trying to hype this team up. We just saw the NBA rig the lottery for the Mavericks, you don’t think the WNBA can make sure their newest team stays competitive tonight? That’s what I thought, I’ll take the points.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-17 (+1.05 Units) – Recommend: Tail
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
