Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets @ OKC Thunder -4.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
I maintain that this is only a series because the Thunder can’t close. They can open though, and I think they get off to another strong start today. OKC holds a plus-8.8 average first half margin in this series and have led at halftime in 5 of the 6 games, plus they’ve dominated first halves all season, particularly at home. With a home crowd that’s guaranteed to be insane, plus injury/illness issues affecting Denver, look for the Thunder to get out to a solid halftime lead before possibly blowing it down the stretch again.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Denver Nuggets/OKC Thunder Under 214 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
You have to pay the Game 7 Under Tax here, but I’m willing to do it. Thankfully the perception of these teams is high-powered offense and in the case of Denver, poor defense, so that keeps this total relatively higher. But both have shown playoff defensive intensity throughout the postseason, and they should take that to the max with a conference finals berth on the line. Denver’s personnel issues shortens their rotation and should force them into a methodical pace, which I see keeping this game under the total.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Russell Westbrook Under 10.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
The Nuggets have benefited from Vintage Russ showing up for a lot of this postseason. He shot 45.1% from the floor through Game 2 of this series, but has shot 25.7% since including 16.7% from deep. I think New Russ is back, and interim coach David Adelman has been yanking him from the game as soon as he takes the bait to shoot, so this total is too high for a slumping player in an under environment.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-16 (+2.7 Units) – Recommend: Tail
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
