Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Julius Randle Over 19.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN
I truly don’t understand what books are doing in keeping Randle’s points prop under 20, especially tonight. All he seems to do is score in the 20’s, going for 20-plus in 9 of his past 10 games while averaging 24.3 in the playoffs, and he’s also gone for at least 25 in 5 of his past 6 overall against the Thunder. What I truly don’t understand is this number being exactly the same as Tuesday when he dropped 28, while Anthony Edwards has seen his points prop come down by 2 points. Randle is the most likely candidate to pick up any scoring slack, so this number is just plain strange and I’m very confident in the over.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/Colorado Rockies Over 11 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on COLR
This has been the prototypical Rockies home series, with 12, 11, and 14 runs in the three games so far with the Phillies accounting for 25 of those. With two pitchers unworthy of any trust starting today, I see that trend carrying right along. That becomes extremely likely given that it’s German Marquez day today, as he’s become arguably the biggest gas can in all of baseball.
The Phillies have wrecked Colorado pitching in all 6 meetings this season, including the bullpen that’s allowed the 5th-most runs in MLB. But don’t discount the Rockies tacking on a few runs of their own here against Ranger Suarez, as they’re usually reliable to contribute at home. I’ve never been a believer in Suarez, and the Philadelphia bullpen behind him leaves a lot to be desired, so both teams should be able to help send this over the high total.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Alec Bohm Alt Over 2.5 Total Bases (+195; Odds via DraftKings)
You don’t often see a player like Bohm, who’s sort of under the radar, laying juice at -120 in the 1.5 total bases market. That’s the case today though and with good reason, as Marquez does not want to see him coming. Bohm has 11 career at-bats against the Rockies starter, compiling a .545 average and 1.364 OPS against him, so at this juicy return I’m willing to go up the ladder and look for a big day out of the Philly third baseman.
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels/Athletics Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:35 PM CT on Fanduel Sports West
It’s another beautiful day in Sacramento with the wind blowing out of this small ballpark, and that should mean plenty of runs are coming again. It should really be another big day at the plate for the red-hot Angels, who have won 6 straight while scoring 6.1 runs per game in their past 10 overall. They’ll face Luis Severino, who the A’s should really only start on the road where his 0.72 ERA is incredible. But at home, being a fly ball pitcher really hurts him and it has shown with a 6.75 ERA. He’s also much worse in day games, so LA might be in for another big day at the plate.
And the Athletics should help out here too, as they’re climbing out of the offensive slump that hit them for about a week. Facing a lefty starter in Tyler Anderson will help with that, as the A’s are 4th in batting average and 7th in both OPS and wOBA against lefthanded pitching. It’s two relatively weak starters in a day game with the wind blowing out of a triple-A ballpark, I should’ve just left it at that.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-14 (-1.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Confidence
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
