Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs ML @ Philadelphia Phillies (+110; Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on Marquee
Things keep getting worse for Philadelphia after a red-hot month of May. As if getting swept by the pitiful Pirates as part of a 1-9 stretch isn’t bad enough, they’ve had to put Bryce Harper on the IL. Their lineup takes a significant step back without him, especially against lefties like they’ll see tonight. And while Zach Wheeler will do everything he can from the mound, this Cubs lineup is terrifying and on a tear, especially against righties. And the Phillies bullpen has also lost a lot of its luster with Jose Alvarado suspended, so the Cubs are likely to do their usual comeback in the later innings and extend the Philadelphia woes.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN
One of my favorite hitters in baseball is still flying under the radar in this spot, and the plus-juice price here has me jumping in. Aranda continues to rake, and has an ideal matchup tonight against Red Sox starter Brayan Bello. As a lefty, Aranda can take advantage of Bello’s weakness against that side of the plate, and he’s had plenty of success already with a career .417 average and .962 OPS against him. An average Boston bullpen that’s worn out from a long series against the Yankees should give Aranda even more opportunities late, and I think he cashes in for a couple of bags tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports South
The Braves just wanted to get Ronald Acuna back from injury so they could turn things around. But things have turned in the wrong direction since he came off the IL, as Atlanta is just 3-12 in the games he’s played this season with 7 straight losses. Chris Sale being on the mound gives them a good chance to get a win here, but I’m willing to take the run and a half with the Brewers who are a solid 21-14 on the run line as a dog. The Braves meanwhile struggle in the road favorite role, going just 6-14 on the run line in those spots. And once Sale leaves the game, the shaky Atlanta bullpen can let Milwaukee hang around and I think they keep it close if not win outright.
Degenerates
NHL Edmonton Oilers/Florida Panthers First Period Over 1.5 (-140; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on TNT
Yeah it’s a hockey pick with heavy juice, but there’s no NBA until Wednesday and it’s a Monday MLB card, what are you, my sponsor? Besides, as Tim Robinson would say, I gotta make money off this, it’s simply too good. These teams have played 4 times on the season, with first period results of 3, 5, 3, and 2 goals. The scoring seems to slow down considerably after that, especially in the playoff games, which is why I’m not going with the full-game total. If you want to look at alt lines of over 2 flat or 2.5 at plus juice I’m not mad at that, or throw this in a parlay, either way I see the fast starts continuing.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-13 (+0.17 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
