Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Over 4.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on SportsNet PT
Counting on the Pirates to have two good days at the plate in a row is risky, that’s why this team total comes with a plus-juice return. The arguably worst offense in baseball put up a 10 spot yesterday against the Marlins, and now get to face the pitcher that’s struggling the most for Miami. That would be Sandy Alcantara who got pushed back to today, likely to give him extra time to rest and get back on track.
I just don’t see that happening, as he’s proven time and again this season that he doesn’t have it yet after Tommy John surgery. That’s especially been the case on the road where he has a massive 12.81 ERA and 2.35 WHIP, along with a .366 on-base average allowed. There is also the league’s 25th-ranked bullpen by ERA behind Sandy, so that explains why opponents are averaging 6.0 runs per game in his starts and I’ll take a shot on another bad outing tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankess/KC Royals First 5 Innings Under 4 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on YES
This is an elite pitching matchup, and even though there are dangerous bats in both lineups, I think they stay quiet early tonight. Max Fried going for the Yankees is always likely to shut the opponent down, especially when it’s a Royals team that is 29th in scoring and in the bottom-5 of just about every other metric against lefties.
But the most exciting part of this matchup is Noah Cameron, the rookie KC starter who has been dominant to open his big league career. After 5 starts, a 0.85 ERA and 0.79 WHIP start to get less fluky, although it gets real tonight against a Yankees team that is crushing lefty pitching on the season. But this will be their first time seeing Cameron’s stuff, which is typically advantage rookie pitcher, so I think both offenses are sluggish through the first five innings tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on SDPA
Freeman has been in a bit of a slump this month, but hopefully broke out of it last night with 3 hits and 4 total bases. Books are offering a better price than usual on Freeman’s bases prop here because of that recent slump, and the fact that he’s on the road against a name-brand starting pitcher. But he has great career numbers against Dylan Cease of a .455 average and 1.000 OPS, so I’ll look to buy relatively low on one of my favorite hitters in this market.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky @ NY Liberty -9.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
The Liberty will be looking to make a statement on national TV here, as well as run up the score for Commissioner’s Cup purposes. I think that starts right away with one of their patented first half eruptions, as they average a plus-15.3 first half margin on the season with a 6-2 record against this number.
That includes a 21-point halftime lead against the Sky who have become a laughingstock, and just lost their starting point guard for the season. This is probably a blowout from start to finish, but just needing a 10-point lead at half is more palatable to me than needing nearly 20 for the game, so I’ll stick to the first half number here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky First Half Team Total Under 35.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
An underrated part of New York’s success has been their defense, which is smothering teams as they lead the league in points allowed and shooting percentage. Once again, they’re 6-2 in holding teams under this first half total, while only allowing 33.9 on average. With this being Chicago’s first game with a backup point guard and Angel Reese missing everything, a big part of the Liberty running away in the first half should be holding the Sky offense down.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-14 (+0.07 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
