Locks
NBA (1 Unit) OKC Thunder/Indiana Pacers Over 228 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
I think the second half of Game 2 was indicative of what this series will look like from a pace and scoring standpoint. That should mean an up-tempo game tonight, especially with the Pacers back home where they can better drive a tempo that suits them best. Some positive shooting regression is also due for Indiana, who was the league’s second-best shooting team this season but didn’t shoot at their usual levels in either game so far. With OKC’s defense just not the same away from home, especially in these playoffs, this should be a fast-paced game with plenty of points.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Indiana Pacers Team Total Over 111.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
If you actually made me choose between this or the game total, I’d go with the Pacers to clear their isolated number. What we’ve seen from the Thunder defense on the road this postseason is concerning to say the least, especially with the Wolves putting 143 and 126 points on them last round. The Pacers will be running and gunning tonight, which I expect will get them over this total relatively easily.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Indiana Pacers +5.5 (-115; Odds via BetMGM)
Let’s just get it out of the way right now – I’m splitting up a unit here and putting a quarter on Pacers moneyline at +180 as well. This team was embarrassed in Game 2, and Rick Carlisle’s wizardry in a bounce back spot will have them competitive at the very least. Neither of these teams have done well in Game 3’s, but I’ll throw that out for Indiana because they were up 2-0 in every series before this. OKC however is simply different on the road, going 0-7 ATS with a minus-6.2 NET rating in the playoffs, so I like the Pacers to cover and potentially grab control of the series.
Double Extra Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 30.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Obi Toppin Over 9.5 Points (-110)
0.5 Unit – Myles Turner Over 14.5 Points (-110)
0.25 Unit – Aaron Nesmith Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+115)
0.25 Unit – Obi Toppin Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+100)
0.25 Unit – Bennedict Mathurin Over 0.5 Made Three’s (-115)
0.25 Unit – Ben Sheppard Over 0.5 Made Three’s (+100)
0.1 Unit – Bennedict Mathurin Alt Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+370)
0.1 Unit – Ben Sheppard Alt Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+425)
0.1 Unit – TJ McConnell Over 0.5 Made Three’s (+260)
MLB (0.5 Unit) Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 1:15 PM CT on MLB Network
Two surprisingly red hot teams square off here, and I think Clement helps keep the Toronto offense rolling. Any time he’s facing a lefthanded pitcher I want to be involved in his total bases prop, and that’s what we have today with Matthew Liberatore starting for St Louis. Righthanded bats hit Liberatore far better, while Clement, as a righty, hits lefthanded pitching far better. It’s 135 points better in fact, posting a .368 average with a 1.089 OPS, and he’s been raking the past couple of weeks as the Blue Jays have taken off so look for a couple of bags from him this afternoon.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 2:40 PM CT on ARID
Not really sure what I’m missing here, or why this number would be so low with standard juice. Rodriguez has gone over this number in 9 straight starts, only staying under in his first appearance of the season. Seattle can be feast or famine at the plate, but they are 10th in total hits against lefties this season, along with ranking above-average in other metrics like batting average, on-base percentage, and wOBA. Rodriguez doesn’t like to see the Mariners coming either, as their lineup has a cumulative .353 average an 1.002 OPS against him, so I think he allows plenty of hits today.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
I don’t typically like playing total bases props without a plus-juice return, but Machado’s pricing here is a discount for how he’s been hitting. I don’t know how much longer standard juice will be available if he keeps this up, hitting .415 with a 1.176 OPS this month and logging 30 total bases in those 10 games. He’s also the most reliable Padre against lefties like Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski, as he’s hitting .314 with a 1.045 OPS against them. Wrobleski has been awful in his two road starts, so I think Machado extends those woes and keeps his bat red hot today.
Degenerates
WNBA Minnesota Lynx -4.5 @ Seattle Storm (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
I don’t know how much longer the Lynx can keep this undefeated season going, but I kind of have to bet them at a shorter price like this. Seattle is feisty, as they’ve been in a lot of single-digit games and had a few close losses, including to the Lynx at Target Center a couple weeks ago. But I’m not convinced that their wins are all that impressive, or that their talent can hang with the Lynx if Minnesota brings their A game. With a discounted spread below the key number of 5 points, I’ll lay it cautiously with the Lynx here.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-17 (-2.85 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
