Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 12:10 PM CT on MLB Network
I want to talk to whoever in the risk room priced Soto this way. First to buy them a drink in appreciation, and then to ask if they’re ok. Soto is on a tear if you haven’t noticed, shaking off his early season struggles to bat .382 with a 1.347 OPS this month so far. It should only get better today facing Mike Soroka, as Soto has plastered him for a .600 average and 1.914 OPS in his career. Soroka has had considerable issues with lefthanded bats this season, so I’m seeing Soto go off in this game and would take a peek at his home run prop if I were you.
Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each) Juan Soto Alt Over 2.5 Total Bases (+220) & Home Run (+385)
Yep, I’m doing it. Did I mention Soto is also facing his old team here? Forgot that angle above, but Soto hasn’t, and he’s gone yard the past two nights against them with 11 total bases in those games. Locked in and looking to make a statement is a dangerous combination, so today should be another showcase game for him.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:35 PM CT on MASN2
This is a good number and a good price on Skubal considering where he’s at right now, and where the competition is. The AL Cy Young favorite has seen his workload increase lately, going over this outs prop in 5 of his past 6 starts, going especially deep into games when he’s dominating the opposing bats. That should happen today, with Baltimore being putrid against lefties, ranked bottom-5 in just about every hitting metric and dead last in a couple. Detroit had to get a lot of work out of the bullpen the past couple nights, so they would benefit from a long outing by Skubal and that’s exactly what I expect to see.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Skubal has only hit this under in 7 of his 13 starts this season, but they all came against teams who do not hit lefties well. As I said above, that would be the Orioles, and they’ve seen Skubal once already this season with him only giving up 4 hits. This is a semi-hedge against his outs prop as they’re not necessarily correlated, but I like both from him tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 6:40 PM CT on MLB Network
Goldschmidt has actually had a cold June after being on a tear coming into the month. This pitching matchup should warm him up though as he’s destroyed Seth Lugo in his career, posting sky-high numbers of a .571 batting average and 1.625 OPS. The Yankees have done a lot to expose Kansas City pitching in this series, so I’ll back their bat with the most success in tonight’s matchup at a solid price.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-16 (+0.15 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
