Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Indiana Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
This worked with relative comfort on Wednesday, so let’s run it back since the Thunder defense needs to be faded on the road. It’s surprising since OKC was such a good defensive team no matter the location this season, but the playoffs have just been a different animal. They’re now allowing 116.1 PPG on the road this postseason, with the opponent going 6-0 over this total.
OKC’s drop in NET rating in road playoff games is a combination of the defensive issues and poor three-point shooting, but they were hitting their three’s in Game 3. A continuation of that is going to force Indiana to score more, so I see the Pacers continuing their playoff home scoring success of averaging 118.1 PPG.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder -2 First Quarter @ Indiana Pacers (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
The late-game success of Indiana and heroics of Tyrese Haliburton is no secret, but I for one was shocked to see the quarter by quarter splits so far in this series. The biggest disparity is between the first and fourth quarters, with the Thunder owning a plus-23 first quarter margin and Indiana a plus-27 fourth quarter margin.
I’m not going to argue with those results or consider them outliers, especially when OKC was the best first quarter team all season and the Pacers were the third-best in average fourth quarter margin. So I see an opportunity to grab OKC at a short number in the first quarter here and have to consider their desperation factor as well, but I’ll probably be looking for a live number on Indiana for the fourth tonight.
Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points (-110)
0.5 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 30.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Tyrese Haliburton Over 32.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120)
0.5 Unit – Aaron Nesmith Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+140)
0.25 Unit – Bennedict Mathurin Alt Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+265)
MLB (0.75 Unit) Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on SNET
Hopefully Clement is able to go today after getting dinged up in Wednesday’s game, because you never want to miss an opportunity with him against a lefty. That’s what he would see tonight in Ranger Suarez, who’s been very good this season, but Clement is just far too potent in this split. He’s now crossed a wild mark, owning a .400 average and 1.198 OPS against lefties on the season, and is just plain hot overall the past couple of weeks with a .385 average and 1.089 OPS. So if he can shake off the injury and go tonight, I’d expect more success and at a very generous price.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Boston Red Sox First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network
We just saw this exact pitching matchup last weekend, and it did not go well for either starter, but particularly Ryan Yarbrough and the Yankees. It always seemed like New York’s reclamation project on Yarbrough and converting him to a starter was wishful thinking, and his last outing may have proven that with 8 earned runs in 4 innings of work against this Boston lineup.
And it’s a Red Sox team that should be expected to do well against Yarbrough as a lefty. They now lead baseball in scoring, batting average, and on-base percentage against southpaws, along with ranking second in OPS, wRC, and wOBA. Boston is a solid early-game scoring team at 8th in first five runs, so this price and their success against Yarbrough has me backing them for another early outburst.
MLB (0.5 Unit) German Marquez Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:15 PM CT on COLR
It’s imperative to find a way to fade Marquez every time he takes the mound, and this seems like the best option today. He has gone over this number in 3 straight starts, 4 of the past 5, and 7 of 13 overall this season, plus his WHIP skyrockets to 1.93 on the road. This Braves offense is absolutely stuck in some kind of rut, and are just plain average against righties which is shocking given their talent. But they do have a tendency to rack up hits without scoring, so I’ll look to the hits prop here instead of earned runs.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Luis Severino Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports KC
Luis Severino’s season needs to be studied by teams of scientists. The home/road splits for him are just wild, but I’m not going to argue with the road success. An ERA of 0.87, a WHIP of 0.94, and a .189 on-base average allowed are simply amazing numbers, as is his stat of just 3 total earned runs in his 5 road starts. The Royals would have to match that in one game for this prop to hit the over, and they stink against righties, ranked 27th in scoring, 27th in wRC+, and 25th in OPS. A breeze blowing in tonight helps Severino as a fly ball pitcher, and I just don’t see these incredible road numbers changing tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-14 (+1.96 Units) – Recommend: Tail
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
