Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers @ OKC Thunder -3.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ABC
If there’s one last NBA game this season, then I’m going down swinging with one of the better trends on the year. The Thunder have been the best first quarter team all season, with a plus-5.0 average margin in home games. They’ve won the first quarter in their home games of this series by margins of 6, 9, and 10, while also dominating the first quarter in the other rounds. The Pacers can be a slow-starting team, especially on the road, and I expect the home crowd to be absolutely insane, so that should propel OKC to one final first quarter cover.
Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 Points (-110)
0.25 Unit – Pascal Siakam Double-Double Yes (+260)
0.5 Unit – Jalen Williams Over 22.5 Points (-110)
0.25 Unit – Tyrese Haliburton Alt Over 7.5 Assists (+125)
MLB (0.75 Unit) Seattle Mariners/Chicago Cubs Over 11.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:20 PM CT on Marquee
The wind is blowing out again at Wrigley, around 12 MPH today, and as long as it continues to do that I have to back overs in Cubs games. Wrigley is just too sensitive to those wind conditions, not to mention a serious heatwave rolling through town that helps the baseball jump. I would’ve thought that yesterday’s game with two strong starting pitchers might hold the scoring down, but after 17 runs nothing seems to be able to do that. So even with good starters on the mound today, I have to look to the over with these offenses.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies Over 12.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on ARID
Much like on the north side of Chicago, the perfect hitting conditions persist at Coors Field today. Hot, dry weather with the wind blowing out again makes it just too easy for teams to score, and the starting pitchers today will make it even easier. Brandon Pfaadt for Arizona is not the gas can he used to be, but still has a 6.53 ERA on the road, not what you want to bring to Coors in these conditions.
And true gas can Antonio Senzatela goes again for the Rockies, and his 7.51 ERA at home combined with bad numbers against this D’Backs lineup should see Arizona score like crazy again. A good pitching matchup yesterday actually did hold the scoring down in this series, but that is not the case today so expect another slugfest.
MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers Team Total Over 5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
The Dodgers lost at home yesterday to a bad team. The Dodgers do not like losing at home to bad teams. I’m very skeptical that they would lose the series at home to Washington, and are most likely looking to crush the Nationals here. That should be possible against Mike Soroka, who brings his 6.12 road ERA into Dodger Stadium and I see that as trouble. The Dodgers are just too good against righties, with the best average, runs scored, and weighted runs created in the league, so in a motivated spot I think they pile up the runs.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-16 (+0.26 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
