Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Chicago Cubs Over 11 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:20 PM CT on Fanduel Sports MW
It’s a shame that there are two decent starting pitchers going today, who as lefties put both offenses in their weaker hitting split. But that fact is keeping this total from being 12 or higher since that’s really what the weather conditions at Wrigley call for. Hot temperatures and a double-digit wind blowing out to dead center is the recipe for an over at Wrigley no matter who’s on the mound, and excellent pitching matchups have fallen victim to that already this year. And these offenses are quite capable of putting up runs in bunches on anyone, especially once the bullpens get involved in this game, so I’m ignoring all other factors and focusing on the weather-assisted over here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Washington Nationals Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on MASN
All these two teams seems to do is get into slugfests lately, and with this pitching matchup I think that continues today. Boston has finally found some offense after returning to the east coast, and their excellent numbers against lefties will come in handy today against Mitchell Parker. It was a rough May and June for Parker, so facing a Red Sox team that is top-5 in every metric against lefties should extend those troubles.
But don’t expect the Nationals to be quiet today, as they should find a way to get to Walker Buehler in this game. The Nats have been very inconsistent at the plate recently, but Buehler bringing his 9.49 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, and .341 on-base average allowed in road games to DC should help them to a big day at the plate. Perfect conditions with the wind blowing out today will also really help with runs, and I think reaching double digits will be easy.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ Cleveland Guardians (+125; Odds via BetMGM): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
This game is simply mispriced in my opinion. You’ve got a Cleveland team that cannot score, having been shutout 4 times in this 8-game losing streak. They’ve also dropped to bottom-3 in the league for scoring, average, and weighted runs created against righties like they’ll see tonight. And Casey Mize is a good righty who’s been shutting teams like Cleveland down all season.
On the other side, you have a Detroit squad that thrives against lefties like they’ll see tonight in Logan Allen. They now lead the league in scoring and batting average against lefties, and have beaten up on Allen already this season. The Guardians have lost 8 times with Allen starting, 7 of which came by multiple runs, while 9 of the 10 wins Detroit has logged with Mize starting have come by multiple runs. I think Detroit should be heavy favorites in this game, so being able to get the juicy return on the run line is good value for me.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Valkyries @ Minnesota Lynx -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
The Valkyries do not mess around, as they’re one of the best cover teams in the WNBA at 11-5 ATS with 7 straight-up wins as a dog. So the Lynx need to be careful of this scrappy squad, but the talent level is simply going to be overwhelming at some point in this game. The Lynx appear to have pulled themselves out of whatever 5-quarter funk cost them the Commissioner’s Cup and forced them to come from behind on Thursday night, and they might look to make up for lost time against the Valkyries here.
The spread is also a Lynx-or-nothing number, as they’re laying less than double-digits at home after being 14.5 point favorites on the road in the first meeting. The defense should be able to clamp down here, and I don’t see Golden State having the same ability to slow Minnesota down if they’re on a mission, so I’ll lay the points tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-12 (+1.17 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
