Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Boston Red Sox Team Total Over 5.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 12:35 PM CT on NESN
The Nationals are throwing a rookie spot starter to the wolves in this game, and I’m here for it. Minor-leaguer Shinnosuke Ogasawara sees his first MLB action today, and it comes against a Boston team that has found their bats, scoring double-digit runs in 3 of their past 5 games. The league’s second-best offense against lefties has a chance to carve up another southpaw here just like they did yesterday, and with excellent hitting conditions at Nationals Park it sure seems like they will.
MLB (1 Unit) Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 12:37 PM CT on TSN
It’s Toronto versus a lefty day, and I’m as in on Clement as you can get. The Jays third baseman is an auto-play in the total bases market against any lefty, as he’s batting .400 against them with a 1.100 OPS this season. And it’s not some elite lefty he’s up against either, it’s Tyler Anderson, who struggles on the road with a 5.48 ERA and elevated WHIP. Clement is 3-for-9 lifetime against Anderson with a double, a triple, and a home run, so I love his chances for another big day at the plate here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Guardians Team Total Under 2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit
With Tarik Skubal going, the opposing team is always going to have deflated numbers posted for their team total, but the Guardians in their current form do more than enough to justify this one. Last night makes 5 shutout losses in this current 9-game losing streak, and it only gets tougher today against Skubal. As a team, Cleveland is 28th in batting average, 30th in OPS and wOBA, and bottom-5 in weighted runs metrics against lefties, and this is arguably the best lefty in the game. Skubal already threw a complete game shutout against the Guardians this season, and the opposing team has gone under this total in 6 of his past 7 starts, so I’m seeing another today.
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 12:40 PM CT on YES
What a strange stretch of baseball it’s been for the Yankees, whose bats completely disappeared when their pitching was elite, and now their pitching has fallen off a cliff while the bats are red hot. I actually think Max Fried will be able to right the ship for them on the mound, but I also think the bats can stay hot today. They’ll get a bullpen game from the Mets, and extremely favorable hitting conditions with a big wind blowing out of Citi Field on a hot day. With 6.6 runs per game since pulling themselves out of the scoring slump, I’ll take a shot at a good price that they can keep it going in this one.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky/Minnesota Lynx Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
This is kind of a strange game where the league’s best scoring defense in Minnesota faces the second-worst scoring offense in Chicago. But at the same time it’s the second-best scoring offense with the Lynx against the Sky’s second-worst scoring defense. So something has to win out, and I think it will be points as that has been the trend lately with both of these teams.
Chicago’s offense has not been nearly as bad as early in the season, and they’ll be catching the Lynx on a rare back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days, so that defense should lose a step. But the Sky really can’t stop much of anything, and the Lynx have been steadily improving their shooting since the debacle against Indiana last week. That should continue to improve tonight against the league’s worst overall field goal and three-point percentage defense, and justify the over steam that hit this total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-12 (+1.47 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
