Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Washington Commanders/Green Bay Packers First Half Under 23.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
I lean towards the Packers in this game, but not enough to lay the worst of the number at an awkward 3.5 points. A big reason for liking them is their ability to shut down the run, which they did to a very run-heavy team last week in holding Detroit to an astounding 46 yards on the ground. They host another team that likes to keep it on the ground here, as Washington ran it all over an excellent Giants front last week for 220 yards.
I don’t want to fall into the trap and overreact too much to Week 1, but those games showed us what these teams are all about and that should have an impact here. Especially early on as they feel each other out in what might end up being a consequential game by the end of the season. At this point of the year the defenses are simply ahead of the offenses in the NFL, and with the added element of the short turnaround to Thursday night, I see a slow start here with a lot of clock being eaten by the run game.
Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.25 Unit – Jayden Daniels Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Jordan Love Under 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Josh Jacobs Over 18.5 Rush Attempts (+105)
0.25 Unit – Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 9.5 Rush Attempts (-105)
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Wake Forest Team Total Over 23 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
This is a bit of a buy-low point on Wake Forest after they looked atrocious against Kennesaw in Week 1, then got it together against FCS Western Carolina last week. Pounding an FCS team doesn’t really tell you much, but the one thing that can be taken away from that game is how important having a fully-staffed backfield is for the Demon Deacons. With Demond Claiborne healthy last week after getting hurt in the opener, the Wake running game was explosive and even helped QB Robby Ashford get in on the fun of racking up 273 total rushing yards.
If that same running game comes to play tonight, they should find plenty of success against an NC State defense that couldn’t stop anything last week, especially on the ground. There’s just a lot of negativity swirling around Wake given their Week 1 close call that I think is unfairly impacting this game and the lines for it. Claiborne being healthy is the difference in my mind for a Deacs team that should be fired up for the longest continuous rivalry in college football, and at home I think this offense clicks against a bad defense they can exploit.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Demond Claiborne Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Claiborne is the home run hitter and the unquestioned workhorse back in this offense. I think he’s in for a big day after light carry work in both games so far should have him healthy for tonight. This NC State defense allowed 257 yards on the ground with 5 runs of 20-plus yards last week, and I don’t that defense taking its first road trip is going to help contain Claiborne.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces -6.5 First Half @ LA Sparks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV
It’s amazing that after 15 straight wins, the Aces still need one more here to hit the 30-win plateau and secure the #2 seed for the playoffs. That’s how much different they are now than in the first half of the season up to their epic beatdown at the hands of the Lynx, and they should be all business tonight. The Sparks are eliminated from the playoffs and should be deflated after scrambling to try to get in, so I don’t expect them to put a ton of effort into this game, especially if Rickea Jackson isn’t available.
That should allow Vegas to roll from the opening tip, and they’ve done just that in both of their wins against LA this season. Both of those games were 15-point margins at the end, but the Aces coasted in the second half after building 14 and 15-point halftime leads. Las Vegas has been wrecking weak teams in the first half during this win streak, and I think the motivation factors for both teams will play a big role in that happening again tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 8-25 (-9.92 Units) – Recommend: Run For Your Life
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
