Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
New Mexico/San Jose St Over 52.5: 9:00 PM CT on FS1
Losing Devon Dampier and a lot of position players to the portal seemed like it would really slow down the New Mexico offense this season, but that’s not how things have played out. The Lobos are still scoring with efficiency and explosiveness, posting 30-plus points in every game except the opener at Michigan where they played really well. I think they can keep putting up those kinds of numbers against a San Jose squad that has not looked good defensively at all.
The Spartans are really bad in the back end of their defense, which showed last week when they couldn’t get stops against a bad Stanford offense. They’ve been allowing a lot of yards and points to some suspect offenses, so the Lobos should be able to capitalize. SJSU has turned it up offensively though, with excellent quarterback play and one of the most productive receivers in the country in Danny Scudero. They should be able to go shot-for-shot with UNM on their own field here, and clear this adjusted total that advantageously moves through several key numbers.
West Virginia @ BYU -12.5: 9:30 PM CT on ESPN
You gotta love conference expansion absurdity. Poor West Virginia has to travel across the country, to elevation, and play a game that kicks off at 10:30 according to their body clocks. That would be a tall order if they were good, but they’re not, and I think BYU is in a great position to smack them around like we’ve seen with other eastern teams in these late-night games. The Mountaineer offense has really struggled all season, and now will give redshirt freshman Khalil Wilkins his first career start in a very hostile environment.
BYU is excellent at getting pressure and creating negative plays, so expect them to put WVU behind the sticks fairly often which is the nightmare scenario for a team that’s been terrible on 3rd down. That’s going to create some short fields if not outright defensive scores for the Cougars, easily padding the margin here. It’s probably worthwhile to just lay the points with BYU given how lopsided the matchup is with their defense, but I’m happy to move the number below the two touchdown mark for an easier cover.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Mercury Team Total Over 78.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
I think the Aces are the rightful favorite in this series overall, but that doesn’t mean the Mercury won’t do some damage. Las Vegas won the regular season series 3-1 with the lone loss being a game that A’ja Wilson missed, but I’ve been convinced all season that Phoenix has the most well-rounded starting 5 in the league. So they’re going to compete and give the Aces trouble, which I see coming on the defensive end for Vegas.
I was stunned at the defensive lapses I saw out of the Aces in their tight series with Indiana, as they allowed the extremely shorthanded Fever to average 81.0 regulation PPG while getting taken to the brink. The Mercury had to be sitting back, resting up, and watching that poor defensive display which probably gives them an advantage in Game 1 here. The Mercury scored very well against two elite defenses in the Liberty and Lynx on their way to the finals, so I think they can clear this total against a worn out Aces team with lots of holes defensively.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 26-24 (+3.05 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
