Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Fanduel)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts +0.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
The Colts have made absolute mince meat out of their weak opponents, and they’ll get another one today. Indy is 2-0 ATS against teams with losing records, racking up a +38.5 ATS margin in those games against the lowly Dolphins and Titans. I don’t see what would change here, as the Raiders will not be able to stop what has become a great Colts offense that ranks second in EPA/play and first in success rate. Vegas has been shredded by much lesser offenses than that, so only asking Indy to bounce back and get a win at home on this adjusted number isn’t asking much at all.
Dallas Cowboys/NY Jets Over 40.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Cowboys overs until further notice, and maybe Jets overs until further notice as well. The defenses are just that bad for both squads, with New York 28th and Dallas 31st in overall EPA/play, but the offenses are sneaky good with both ranking top-6 in success rate. This should be a surprisingly successful game for both passing attacks with both teams bottom-3 in EPA/play against the pass, even with Dak Prescott on the road and outdoors. He’ll need to throw early and often again with the Jets showing some competency on offense the past two weeks, so they should cut through this high school defense the Cowboys are trotting out. Adjusting this total through several key numbers creates good value, and I see these teams clearing it easily.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -1.5: 7:20 PM CT on NBC
If you watched any of the Bills game last week against the Saints, it was obvious they didn’t take New Orleans seriously. There was a nervous portion of that game for Buffalo though, and I think it will give them better focus and motivation tonight. I also see this as a big brother versus little brother game, where the Bills will be looking to impose their will on the Patriots in a national TV spot. New England’s defense is nowhere near as good as it looked last week against the atrocious road Panthers, and won’t be able to stop the league’s best offense. The Patriots will get some points behind impressive play from Drake Maye, but it won’t be enough to pull a stunner and Buffalo will end up making teased number look easy.
NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles (-220): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
I’m hesitant to lay an awkward number of points with the Eagles despite them being 3-1 ATS this season. They keep getting away with wins, and the past three weeks covers, in ways that could catch up with them eventually. But they’re in a great spot here to extend their spotless record against a Broncos team in a tough travel spot. Denver is traveling for the fourth week in a row, and going west to east on a short week no less, making things tough on a team that’s already dropped both their road games.
Philly meanwhile is yet to put together a complete 60 minutes of football, which is a scary thought, and the defense is rapidly improving. Bo Nix’s struggles against solid defenses should take a toll here in a hostile environment, while an angry Eagles offense takes out some frustrations here, so I like Philly to come away with the win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-190): 3:05 PM CT on CBS
Speaking of tough travel spots, the Bucs have to make one of the longest domestic trips possible in the league, and face a team on extra rest. Tampa also comes into this game severely banged up, with Bucky Irving and Mike Evans out, plus cluster injuries on the offensive line. That will make it pretty difficult to produce against a Seattle defense that is absolutely for real, and has had extra time to prepare off last week’s Thursday game.
The Bucs can also be thrown on, so this Sam Darnold led offense that is still riding the Klint Kubiak sugar high should move the ball easily through the air. I’m looking strictly at the moneyline here though as the Bucs have been good at covering on the road, and Baker Mayfield always keeps them in games late through some kind of magic. In the end though, travel, injuries, and a sneaky-good Seattle team will be too much as the Seahawks get a win here.
NFL (1 Unit) Detroit Lions First Half Team Total Over 14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX
That opening week clunker by the Lions is looking more and more strange in hindsight. But credit to them for turning it around in the biggest way since, with an offense that has been as close to perfect as it gets. This is now the league’s best offense by EPA/play through the air, and they should light up an atrocious Bengals defense out of the gates today. The Lions have put up 62 total first half points the past 3 weeks, while the Bengals have given up 58 total first half points in that span. Cincy should be tired and disheartened after Monday night’s whipping in Denver, so now is not the time to face this highly efficient freight train offense that I think rolls right away.
NFL (1 Unit) New England Patriots/Buffalo Bills First Quarter Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
Four games, four opening drives, four touchdowns for Buffalo this season. That makes them a great first quarter bet, but also really raises the floor of scoring for opening quarters in their games which is where I’m going here. I think they have an easy time making it five-for-five on opening possession touchdowns, and if they’re looking to make a statement in this game like I think they are, don’t rule out Buffalo hanging multiple scores in the first quarter themselves.
But like I said above, Drake Maye and this Patriots offense has been impressive, and 3 of their 4 games have gone over this number in the first quarter thanks to that offense and rough defense. I think they can exploit some holes in a Bills defense that is average to below-average, especially on the ground, and create points of their own in a high-scoring opening quarter.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.25 Unit – Darren Waller Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Bryce Young Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Daniel Jones Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Michael Pittman Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Christian Kirk Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Justin Fields Over 189.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Breece Hall Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Jaxon Smith-Njigba Alt Over 99.5 Receiving Yards (+185)
0.5 Unit – Kenneth Walker Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jared Goff Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – AmonRa St Brown Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – AmonRa St Brown Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Sam LaPorta Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Drake Maye Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Drake Maye Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – James Cook Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Josh Allen Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Treyveon Henderson Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 27-22 (+4.73 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
