Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars) 6:08 PM CT on FS1
This low number has a lot to do with the Yankees having their backs against the wall in this game, along with rookie sensation Cam Schlittler taking the mound. But the Yankees had their backs against the wall last night and one of their best pitchers got them into a 6-1 hole before the third inning was over.
Toronto has just plain figured out how to score on New York, and since their season took off in early summer they’ve averaged 7.1 runs per game and gone 11-2 over this total against the Yanks. Schlittler doesn’t scare me much in a let-down spot off his heroics against Boston, and his worst start of the year came at home against the Jays a month ago. Add in an overworked bullpen for the Pinstripes that will likely be mismanaged by Aaron Boone, I’m seeing Toronto clear this low number despite the situation.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110; Odds via DraftKings)
Vladdy paid off again yesterday by sending one over the fence in his first at-bat, just an insane start to the postseason with a homer in every game so far. I don’t know what could possibly possess anyone to stop riding the streak with him now, especially in this matchup. The Yankees will send Wild Card hero Cam Schlittler out tonight, and the rookie will hate to see Vladdy coming. In 5 at-bats this season Guerrero has 4 singles against the Yankee rookie, and should pad those numbers tonight as he keeps terrorizing New York pitching.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Aaron Nola Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:08 PM CT on TBS
With the Phillies on the brink of elimination, I’m very surprised to see them starting Aaron Nola tonight. If it was a home game that might be a different story, but the road version of Nola has been an unmitigated disaster all season with a 6.97 ERA and multiple earned runs in all but one start. The Dodgers are in a groove offensively and locked in mentally, so being back home where they do terrible things to righthanded pitchers should spell trouble for Nola tonight. The Philadelphia bullpen is in rough shape as well so I’d expect them to use Nola for an extended start, giving him too much exposure to the LA lineup to not go over this total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Leg Prop Parlay (+155; Odds via DraftKings): 8:08 PM CT on TBS
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-167)
I’m taking the outs over for every Dodgers starter in these playoffs until further notice. Unfortunately the number is juiced to the moon and I suspect that will continue, but this works just fine as a parlay leg. LA’s starting pitching has rounded into form at the right time though, and were set up masterfully for this playoff run. Plus, manager Dave Roberts and the Dodgers have no choice but to lean on the starters to eat innings and keep their disastrous bullpen out of the game. Yamamoto coming into tonight having gone over this prop in 6 of 7 starts while on an insane run of allowing just 3 runs in his past 40 innings show where he’s at, so trust will be high and he should fly over this outs number.
LA Dodgers First 5 Innings Moneyline (-166)
So I don’t like the outlook for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, but I love the outlook for Dodgers starter Yoshi Yamamoto. That would make a first five innings bet on the Dodgers pretty elementary, but I don’t want to lay the half run while also laying juice. So I’ll stick with the moneyline here as a parlay piece while expecting that the handicaps on Nola and Yamamoto pan out. This just feels like a great situational spot for LA, returning home with a 2-0 lead and enjoying a massive pitching advantage, so I think they find a way to cash this early moneyline.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Aces Team Total Over 80.5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
My approach to this series is to back the underdog’s team total since that’s the discounted number in what I see as a high-scoring series overall. And discounting Las Vegas’ team total like this creates solid value for a team that is really clicking offensively right now, and has been able to score on Phoenix all season.
The Aces went 3-1 over this total in the regular season and now 2-0 so far in these Finals, with the only under coming in the one game A’ja Wilson missed. When Wilson suits up they’re averaging 86.6 PPG against the Mercury, not to mention 87.6 in this postseason run where they’re 8-2 over this total. Phoenix has a great roster, but until they prove they can stop this Vegas offense, a number like tonight’s is far too low.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 25-18 (+0.58 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
