Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) NY Jets @ New England Patriots -7 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
This is just a horrible matchup for the Jets, and should result in a beatdown overall, but I’m not usually comfortable laying almost 2 touchdowns. I am comfortable backing a Patriots team that has been elite in first halves this season though, going 8-2 ATS on the first half number. That’s thanks to their surprising offense that is 5th in first half scoring, and their passing game should be able to carve up a Jets team that shipped off its two best defenders.
New York gives up the second-most points before halftime in the league, and paired with being 29th in first half scoring, that should be the recipe for getting into an early hole tonight. This run-heavy Jets offense going against such an excellent rush defense will limit them even further, so I think this is an easy path to a touchdown-plus lead at half for the Patriots.
Bonus Prop Bet (0.75 Unit): Breece Hall Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I like Breece Hall and thank him for his years at Iowa State, but this is not shaping up to be his night. At least not on the ground, where he faces a defense that leads the league in rushing yards allowed and is 7th in rush defense EPA per play. They also haven’t allowed a single running back to go for 50 yards, so this is a strange number from that perspective. I also think the Jets will be in such a hole that Hall will be utilized much more in the passing game as they play catch up, so I don’t see much production for him on the ground tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue @ Alabama -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This should be a fun one, but it’s a game where I see a clear mismatch in style and athleticism. If you paid attention to Alabama slicing and dicing an excellent St John’s defense in their last game, you saw the exact formula for the Tide to pull away from Purdue here. The Boilers don’t have the kind of bigs that can get out and defend on the perimeter with Alabama’s stretch bigs, or defend in switches against the Tide guards, which is how Alabama torched the Red Storm.
And that backcourt for Bama, which might be the best in the country, is far too fast and athletic for Purdue’s Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, giving them a massive advantage in this game. With the Tide at home in what will be a raucous environment, I see them pulling away here and like that this spread sits below the key number of 5 points.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 31-41 (-3.39 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
