Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Leg Same Game Parlay (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 7:15 PM CT on ABC
Dallas Cowboys (-192) @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Cowboys will be playing with a lot of emotion in this game as they remember Marshawn Kneeland. I happen to think that keeps them motivated, as does the return of their defensive leader DeMarvion Overshown, and they should look to beat up on a bad team like they usually do. Coming off the bye they’ll have a much better offensive approach than the last Monday night debacle, when they stood no chance against Arizona two weeks ago. But the Raiders are one of the league’s laughingstocks right now, woefully short on offensive firepower at 30th in the league to threaten Dallas if the Cowboys are in sync. So I’m confident that Dallas has enough prep and motivation to beat a team that has to start thinking about draft position at this point in the year.
CeeDee Lamb Alt Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-232)
The standard line for Lamb is getting up there at 88 yards, even though he’s cleared that 3 times already this season. This alt line is the easy one though, as he’s gone over this number in all 6 of his healthy games. CeeDee is averaging the highest yards per reception of his career, and would have the second-most targets in the league if you extrapolate his production over the games he’s missed. The Raiders have nobody in the secondary capable of slowing him down, and there should be a plan to get Lamb heavily involved off the bye, so this alt line should be one he clears easily.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
I think this is just a horrific spot for Dallas to be walking into, and should allow the Wolves to stomp them right out of the gates. The Mavericks are on a back-to-back with travel here, after playing an overtime game last night plus a double-OT game on Friday night. That catches up to anyone, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fairly sluggish to start this game.
The Wolves meanwhile were just humbled by the Nuggets on Saturday night, and should be looking to get back to beating up on weak competition which they’ve done very well so far. Minnesota has also been strong in first halves at home, ranking 6th in average margin at plus-6.8 points per game. Dallas happens to already be 29th in first half scoring, so add in the fatigue and the Wolves looking to run someone out, and I think it’s a big Wolves lead going into halftime.
NBA (1 Unit) LA Clippers/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 53.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-PHI
This is just a laughably low number when you consider what the Sixers have done for the vast majority of this season so far. Their first quarters have been mostly wild, going 11-1 over this total and typically flying over the number while averaging 64.8 points. The Clippers aren’t on that level, but have seen a significant uptick in early scoring recently, and happen to give up the second-most points in opening quarters on the road. They might also be staring at a Paul George revenge game here, which would boost scoring throughout the game. But mostly this is a play on the number that makes little sense for how these teams play defense to start games, so I think it’ll be an easy early over.
NBA (1 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Toronto Raptors First Quarter Over 58 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on SportsNet
I mentioned the Clippers allow the second-most points in road first quarters, but they still have a long way to go to catch Charlotte. This team is giving up the most opening quarter points overall, but the 37.2 they allow on the road is staggeringly bad. Amazingly enough, Charlotte doesn’t dig themselves as big of a first quarter hole as you’d expect, since they score the second-most points at 33.4 in opening quarters. I think they can keep that up against a Raptors team that is just 23rd in defensive efficiency at home this season, but has finally found their offense. Toronto has scored very well in recent games against much better defenses than they’ll see here, so I think Charlotte’s style fuels another wild opening quarter.
NBA (1 Unit) Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets -4.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude
This is a terrible situation for the Bulls to be walking into, and it should hurt them right away tonight. Chicago just played two overtimes last night against a fast-paced Utah team, and now has to go to even higher elevation with far too little rest. Waiting for them is a Nuggets team that is crushing teams in the first quarter overall, but especially at home where they average a plus-8.5 point margin. A Bulls team that is 25th in the league with a minus-4.0 average first quarter margin on the road is in deep trouble, and I think Denver jumps all over them to start this game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-23 (-3.00 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
